Predicting outcome of Lions-Bills game by comparing 7 positional groups

Thursday Night Football's 2026 premier is the Battle for Lake Erie.

The Detroit Lions will be traveling to Buffalo to face off against the Bills in their brand-new, slightly controversial Highmark Stadium, with contention bragging rights on the line.

While the two teams are in entirely different divisions and conferences, they've got plenty of similarities at the moment: two quarterbacks that are great, but have yet to prove they can win a Super Bowl, as well as two teams that have gotten so close to reaching that stage but have yet to actually arrive.

Ahead of their primetime clash, we'll be comparing seven of the teams' positional groups, and determining who might have the leg-up in this Week 2 game based on those rankings.

1. Quarterback
2. Running back
3. Pass-catchers
4. Linebackers
5. Secondary
6. Defensive line
7. Offensive line
8. Final prediction

Quarterback

Do you guys think the Bills decided to snag Allen in free agency because he and Josh share a last name? I'll hang up and listen.

This is going to be a fun quarterback duel, but very different stylistically - Allen is known for being a chicken without its head under a collapsing pocket, yet still able to turn out an excellent pass down field to keep the chains moving. Goff is known as one of the best pocket-passers in the NFL, although he showed off some ability to pass in motion against New Orleans in Week 1.

This feels like a game that could come down to potency on offense for both teams. Running back is the obvious area of potential dominance for both teams in this one (more on that soon), but quarterback will be just as important with how many pass-catching weapons both teams have. We err on the side of Goff in this specific matchup, though - Detroit's defensive line just performed at a high level in New Orleans, and they have a size advantage on Buffalo's defensive line going into this one.

Running back

Johnson is questionable headed into this game, hence the asterisk.

Against a very tough Houston Texans defensive line, Cook managed to only pick up 57 rushing yards on 13 carries in Week 1. He also had a few receptions for 12 yards. This production should in no way paint the picture with Cook, who has a serious knack for finding the smallest gaps and taking advantage of them as a speedy, hard runner.

But, Gibbs just showed the kind of force he plans to be in 2026 for the Lions in their own Week 1 game against another tough defensive front in New Orleans: 29 carries for 156 rushing yards and two touchdowns, with an average of 5.4 yards per carry.

Buffalo's run defense is still a work in progress, and after the performance that Detroit's offensive line had in their Week 1 debut, it's hard to bet against them having an even better game than they did against New Orleans. So, we give the point to the Lions here.

Pass-catchers

We'll add an addendum here that both teams like to utilize their running backs as receivers, as well. But, for now, we'll focus on WRs and TEs.

Detroit is top heavy in this category and, honestly, deeper on paper than Buffalo here. Moore just shined in his debut with Allen and the Bills, and both Palmer and Shakir were solid contributors in the Bills' win in Week 1. But, the Lions have to be expecting a return to the mean for St. Brown, Williams, and LaPorta in this game.

That's especially the case with Buffalo's secondary looking almost as shaky as Detroit's - almost. I'd argue the Lions' unit is a bit more worse for wear at the moment without Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph.

This isn't so much a point given to the Bills because I find their receivers to be better than the Lions', but I just don't know how to feel about Detroit's chances of keeping up with Buffalo's receivers defensively after what we saw in Week 1 against the Saints. So, we'll go with the Bills here.

Linebackers

Campbell proved to be a problem in the run game in Week 1 (no shock), while Barnes was a force in the pass rush for the Lions: six tackles, an interception, a sack, and two passes defended helped the Lions almost break things open against the Saints.

He also dressed as Spiderman to arrive at Ford Field in Week 1, and we discovered this week that Allen is not a fan of arachnids. Seems like there's something there...

Rousseau is Buffalo's most dangerous linebacker for the Lions to handle tomorrow night. He had two sacks against the Texans, and two key forced fumbles. He's a risk for Detroit's new-look offensive line to face, but they did a pretty good job of containing the Saints' defensive front and Chase Young. They did struggle with Kaden Elliss, though, which could show holes where Rousseau can be a problem.

We'll give the point to the Lions here with just how much depth they have at the position, which should be an advantage defensively while they're recovering from a short week.

Secondary

Both teams' secondaries have a ton of questions, but here's where Buffalo has the advantage - at least they have some young depth in their cornerback and safety rooms, and at least they have health on their side. Detroit looked very pick-apart-able against New Orleans due to their lack of speed in coverage and, possibly, just because of a bad scheme fit between personnel and Kelvin Sheppard's vision.

Likely until Brian Branch returns, at the very least, Detroit's going to always be the underdog positionally here. Point to Buffalo.

Defensive line

Buffalo's defensive line is very solid - Bradley Chubb was a big get for them this offseason, and he provides some pop to a pass rush that's been missing a proper counterpart to Ed Oliver. However, the Bills' front seven is small, and they just left Week 1 having given up three rushing touchdowns to David Montgomery (miss you!) and 124 total rushing yards.

That's an issue when you're now set to face Gibbs on a short week.

On the flip side, Detroit will be dealing with Cook for the most part on the ground, and working to fight against a really strong offensive line. Their ability to limit how many comfortable passes Allen can get off can make or break this game.

We'll give the Lions the point here, as they showed some promising stuff in Week 1.

Offensive line

There are some injury concerns headed into Week 2 for the Lions: Mahogany and Miller are out for this game. That leaves the potential for Bartch and Borom to be starting against Buffalo, which is not a pretty sight.

Not much else to say other than Buffalo easily gets the point here.

Final prediction

The Lions win the comparison game by a score of 4-3 - same as last week's prediction. Injuries have already begun to rear their ugly heads amongst the Lions' offensive line, or else Detroit might've had the leg up in this prediction by a score of 5-2, instead. We've already gone 1-0 on the year, so here's hoping this analysis of (almost every) unit keeps getting results.

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