When the NFL schedule comes out, strength of schedule is determined on a surface level by opponent's win percentage from the previous season. That can of course be tricky, and the evolution of prediction models has taken some of that natural doubt away to be more reliable.
When this year's schedule came out, the Detroit Lions' "strength of schedule" was in the middle of the pack, give or take, wherever you looked. The first four games, which they are now of course through, featured two of their playoff opponents from last year (Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and a team that finished about .500 last year (Seattle Seahawks). Having three of those games at home was a favorable start, as is a general tilt toward indoor games for the full season,
To come out of that opening stretch with a 3-1 record goes down as a win for the Lions, as the offense worked through some kinks early.
Update strength of schedule shows increased challenge for the Lions
Pro Football Network had the Lions with the 14th-toughest schedule in the league going into the season. They've now updated things heading into the first bye week on the schedule, which of course is the Lions' bye week.
Strength of schedule for all 32 NFL teams heading into the first bye week of the season. 📊
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 2, 2024
*Ranked hardest to easiest* pic.twitter.com/Xbi65rp2M8
The Lions having the fifth-hardest remaining schedule is rooted in a few places.
Four of their next five games are on the road (Dallas Cowboys-Week 6, Minnesota Vikings-Week 7, Green Bay Packers-Week 9, Houston Texans-Week 10). For that matter, five of their next seven games are on the road.
Two games against the currently (and unexpectedly) undefeated Vikings tilts the Lions' schedule tougher than it looked going into the season. They also have yet to play a divisional game, and the Packers and Chicago Bears are both 2-2.
The only games the Lions have left against a team that is below .500 heading into Week 5 are Week 8 (Tennessee Titans) and Week 11 (Jacksonville Jaguars). That of course can and will change as the weeks go on, but it does explain the Lions having a top-five toughest remaining schedule in the league right now.
Five of the Lions' remaining opponents also have a top-10 toughest remaining schedule heading into Week 5.