The Detroit Lions are having a storybook season, and they need just one more win to reach Super Bowl 58.
The problem? That matchup comes against the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara. The 49ers are currently the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and they’re seven-point favorites in this game.
Still, I don’t think that should deter fans from thinking the Lions can win this game. Detroit has impressed all season long, and it is 2-1 against the spread as an underdog.
San Francisco survived a scare against the Green Bay Packers last week, but can it do it again on Sunday?
Using the latest odds, I’m going to attempt to predict the final score for the NFC Championship. In the prop betting market, if you guess an exact final score, you can win pretty big based on the odds.
Can we do that on Sunday night?
Lions vs. 49ers odds, spread and total
Lions score prediction
I love Detroit to cover the spread in this game, as the team is 17-4 ATS as an underdog of four or more points in the Dan Campbell era, and the 49ers are just 3-6 ATS as home favorites this season.
But, can they pull off the upset?
Lions fans, I think they can. Let me explain.
Detroit is one of the best offenses in the NFL, ranking inside the top 10 in points scored and yards per play this season, and it should be able to keep up with a San Francisco 49ers team that is potentially down a key offensive weapon in Deebo Samuel.
Samuel is questionable at best for this game, and San Fran is just 8-9 straight up in the 17 games Deebo has missed in his career. Intriguing, no?
If the Lions can stop the run – something they’ve done this season – they’ll have a chance.
While the Lions ranked 30th in the NFL in net yards allowed per pass attempt during the regular season, they are ELITE against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry — the third-best mark in the league.
Brock Purdy looked far from elite in the divisional round against the Green Bay Packers, and there is a chance he will make a mistake or two to keep the Lions in this game.
The total in this game is in the low 50s, but I think we’re looking at an UNDER game, as the San Fran defense is above average and Detroit may be able to get a few more stops than people think if Deebo sits.
The Lions are going to the Super Bowl. Book it.
Final score prediction: Lions 27, 49ers 23\
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.