Ostensibly in an effort to bring the kickoff return back into the game, though rooted in an effort to reduce injuries that occur on the play, the NFL changed its kickoff rules for this year. It's a one-year trial, borrowing from spring football leagues to create a "landing zone" from the return team's 20-yard line to it's goal line.
The preseason was not going to be telling, as teams were not going to reveal how they'd approach kicking kickoffs or returning them under the new format. A late change was made to bring touchbacks out to the 30-yard line instead of the 35-yard line.
Through two games of the regular season, ahead of a full Sunday slate, 19 of 24 kickoffs have been touchbacks. That 79.2 percent touchback rate. Yes it's a very small sample thus far, but that exceeds last season's 78 percent rate of unreturned kickoffs.
Simply, there's no incentive to kick it short of the end zone and invite a return that may naturally cross the 30-yard line. Just boot it into or through the end zone, and cede that to the opposing offense.
Lions' special teams coach Dave Fipp says it all about new kickoff
The NFL is calling the new kickoff the "dynamic" kickoff. So far, through just two regular season games, it's hardly been that.
Lions special teams coach Dave Fipp talked to the media on Thursday. Via Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, he laid out an analogy about the new kickoff format to outline why touchbacks would likely stay prevalent.
"The easiest way I can explain it is if you place a $100 bet — not that we like talking betting here — but if you place a $100 bet and you broke even if the ball went to the 30 — that’s where the touchback goes — well, for every yard, you stop them in front of the 30, you get a buck back...I would say it’s hard to get 10 bucks back on that play and tackling them at the 20, but there’s 70 yards that way that you might give up if it goes the other way, so it’s like this risk/reward thing."
Fipp opened up the idea for more aggressive kickoff return strategies based on point in the game, game situation, opponent, etc., but he stuck to his overall point about the kickoff side of the equation.
"I think the league said that numbers (in the preseason) were on average, the drive start was the 28.8, so you’re talking about fighting for 1.2 yards with the chance to give up a lot, so that makes it more advantageous for the return side and less likely for the kick team to be kicking a million returns.”
Sunday games and a full week of Week 1 games will bring a more worthy sample. But Fipp's thoughts on the kicking part of the new kickoff are presumably not unique to him among his special teams coach peers. It's simply not worth kicking it in the field of play a lot, and the time for the league to change where touchbacks come out to is gone.