Against a bad pass defense in a favorable game environment and indoors, Lions quarterback Jared Goff delivered big for his fantasy managers against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10 (333 yards, two touchdowns; a QB8 finish for the week).
We highlighted how nice Goff's fantasy schedule looked coming out of the Lions' Week 9 bye. The Chargers' game was only the start, and now the Lions will be at home to take on the Chicago Bears in Week 11.
Entering Week 11, the Bears are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (20.13 per game; Yahoo! scoring). If not for facing Aidan O'Connell/Brian Hoyer in Week 7 and Bryce Young in Week 10, they would be far worse. As it is they've allowed the fourth-most passing yards and the second-most passing touchdowns.
On the flipside, though David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are still locked in fantasy starters this week, the Bears have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league since Week 6. Overall they are second in the league against the run (76 yards per game), with the lowest yards per carry allowed in the league (3.2).
Fantasy Football: Jared Goff is an obvious must-start in Week 11 vs. Bears
The downside risk for starting Goff in fantasy this week lies in the potential game script. The Lions are 7.5-point favorites as of the most recent odds (odds subject to change), so it could be a run-heavy Detroit offense to close out Sunday's game.
We got a glimpse of that in a Lions'-Bears game late last season. The Lions beat the Bears 41-10 at Ford Field in Week 17, as Goff went 21-for-29 for 255 yards with three touchdowns. He finished as QB7 in fantasy for the week, driven by the touchdowns to cover for the lack of volume. It's also fair to say the Bears' run defense was not nearly as good as it has been lately at any point last year. So he could have to throw a bit more.
Goff's floor this week looks like a top-12 finish, with a ceiling to finish in the top-5 fantasy signal callers for the week. Such as it's even a decision for those who have it to make, start him with confidence again this week.