After not looking quite as sharp early this season as he did for much of last season, Monday night against the Seattle Seahawks felt like an important game for Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff. He didn't have to be perfect, and live up to his nickname on his Pro Football Reference page ("Mr. Perfect"). He just needed to be sharper than he was over the first three games of the season.
And sharp Goff was, with a second straight perfect first half (12-for-12) on his way to finishing the Lions' 42-29 win 18-for-18 for 292 yards and two touchdowns. He had a 155.8 passer rating, so it's hard to know what he had to do to earn a perfect 158.3 rating. Or, as head coach Dan Campbell acknowledged after the game, a game ball for his performance.
Goff did, however and however easily expected, set an NFL record with his 100 percent completion rate.
How improbable was Jared Goff not throwing an incompletion Monday night?
Completing every pass over an entire game is patently a statistical unlikelihood, based on all the things that can lead to incompletions-bad throws, throw-aways under pressure, a drop by a pass catcher, a pass breakup by a defender, a simple case of missed timing on a route, etc. Avoiding just one of any of those things requires as much good fortune as it does skill.
According to Next Gen Stats, based on passing depth, etc. Goff had a +21.9 Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) on Monday night.
Based on the completion probability of each of his 18 attempts, the odds of Goff completing every single one was 1-in-145 (0.69 percent).
However it could be diminished based on the quarterbacks they faced, the Seahawks' defense did give up more than 140 net passing yards or cede a passer rating above 83.7 in any of their first three games. On Monday night, Goff had 266 net passing yards and a whopping 16.2 yards per pass attempt to go with that near-perfect (again, how could it not be perfect?) passer rating.
It's a funny note, but Goff literally had more touchdown catches (one) on Monday night than he had incompletions.
Goff's passing record from Monday night will never be broken. Maybe shared, someday, but never broken.