It's Year 3 for Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams, and the reasons for the slow start to his career are gone. By all accounts during OTAs he's doing the work to foster a breakout season, and there are deeper metrics to back up the progress he made late last season.
There is certainly opportunity for Williams in the Lions' offense, rooted in the free agency departure of wide receiver Josh Reynolds. What his route tree. target share etc. looks like is a question until we see it on the field, but the Lions have cleared the runway for Williams to be a key piece of their offense.
There are plenty of other mouths to feed in Detroit's offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Kalif Raymond are not going anywhere, but it can certainly be said Williams offers an element none of the others do.
Ideal fantasy format to target Jameson Williams in makes a lot of sense
In a general sense, in standard 12-team leagues, Williams' ADP is in WR4 territory (WR48, pick No. 105) in 0.5-point PPR) right now and it's unlikely to move higher as we get toward the teeth of draft season. He could certainly outproduce that, which makes him a decent value pick to have on the radar.
During his good run last season, consistent production was elusive for Williams. Some of that was rooted in sheer volume, as he only had four or more targets three times in 11 games after the Lions' bye week (including the playoffs). All three came from Week 15 on though.
Still, until he shows himself to be a consistent producer, fantasy managers have to treat Williams as someone who's production has a good chance to fluctuate week-to-week. With that in mind, looking down the draft board, Stephen Hoopes of 4for4 had Williams on his list of those who are a "better in best ball" wide receiver.
"Meanwhile, I’ve selected Jameson Williams a grand total of zero times. In my opinion, Jameson’s ADP has completely jumped the shark. Based on his performance last year, my machine-learning model would peg him as a 16th-round pick in Underdog drafts. This assumes that his situation hasn’t changed since last season."
"On a positive note, Jameson did improve substantially in the last few games of the season according to Reception Perception But, while the departure of Josh Reynolds does open up some opportunities, it’s difficult to see Williams as anything more than the fifth option to get the ball for the Lions. I’d argue a reasonable outcome for fantasy managers and the Detroit Lions alike is for him to turn in a Gabe Davis-like season."
Yahoo's Matt Harmon, the creator of "Reception Perception", noted similarities between Williams and Gabe Davis based on those metrics.
Williams is a seventh-round pick in Underdog Fantasy drafts, which is best ball of course, with an ADP around 83 overall.
The appeal of best ball is that it takes away weekly lineup decisions, and the regret that comes with leaving a big point total on your bench in a given week. Williams is a dictionary definition of a "better in best ball WR" until further notice, and the difference in his ADPs is showing it.