Fantasy floor and upside for David Montgomery this year reflected in optimistic running back ranking
Signing with the Detroit Lions in March was an obvious boon to David Montgomery's fantasy stock. In late-April, afterJahmyr Gibbs was drafted, the requisite tumble in said stock came. To the point, Montgomery can be seen as a draft value. Those who were in on him at the peak can still be in now, just with the adjustment in ADP and expectations.
As of Monday (August 7), Montgomery has fallen to ADPs of RB30 (Yahoo!, 0.5-point PPR) and RB31 (ESPN, full PPR).
To end July, Josh Larky of The 33rd Team unveiled an extensive Top-55 ranking of fantasy running backs for PPR scoring (0.5 and full-point) Both Lions' backs are in his top-20, with Gibbs at No. 15 in "Tier 2: "Low-end RB1 Types".
An optimistic fantasy ranking of Lions running back David Montgomery
Montgomery is in Larky's "Tier 3: One Red Flag Holding Them Back". The proverbial red flag for Montgomery is the presence of Gibbs, but Larky has him at No. 18 overall and is generally very optimistic.
"This is likely the highest you’ve seen Montgomery in fantasy rankings. His track record is stellar. Through four seasons, he’s averaged 229 carries, 39 receptions, 1,212 total yards and 7.5 touchdowns.
- Josh Larky, The 33rd Team
He’s never had fewer than 235 touches in a season, showcasing his durability. The Lions signed him to a three-year deal with $11 million in guarantees, a true investment in him.
While Gibbs is the better player, Montgomery has 25 pounds on him and is the favorite for goal-line work. Gibbs weighing 199 pounds will also cap his total volume, so Montgomery projects for around 250 touches heading into this season.
The Lions have a top offensive line, and the immobile Goff should target Montgomery often whenever he’s on the field. Montgomery likely provides low-end RB2 production each week, but should anything happen to Gibbs, Montgomery would be a locked-in top-8 fantasy option."
Based on the ADP drop aggregated at Fantasy Pros as August has started, Montgomery's status as a draft day value is cemented and getting better. A top-20 preseason ranking among running backs feels a little aggressive, even if it's only one place, but Montgomery's healthy floor for 2023 is not reflected by where fantasy managers are drafting him.
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