At one point it was on pace to happen last year, but Calvin Johnson's single season receiving yardage record has been predicted to indeed fall this season.
In 2012, Calvin Johnson set the NFL single-season receiving yardage record with 1,964 yards. With the addition of the 17th game, that record is real danger of being surpassed. At one point during the 2022 season, two guys (Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill) were on somewhat of a pace to get it done.
Jefferson and Hill both wound up falling solidly short of passing Johnson last season, with 1,809 and 1,710 yards respectively. So there will be no asterisk, for anyone who wants to differentiate from a 16-game or 17-game single-season receiving yards record. At least not yet. But it does seem to only be a matter of time.
Johnson's 122.8 yards per game from 2012, the fourth-highest mark in league history and the second-best mark in that category since 1961, seems likely to stand a test of more time.
Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yardage record predicted to go down in 2023
Adam Schein, writing for NFL.com, recently listed his nine boldest predictions for the 2023 season as we move into the summer. He, of course, has Johnson's single-season yardage mark being toppled.
"No wide receiver has ever hit 2K. Calvin Johnson's come the closest, posting an NFL-record 1,964 yards in 2012. Nine years later, Cooper Kupp reached 1,947 yards. In 2023, Jefferson makes history."
"Shoot, it's just the natural progression of Jefferson's NFL production, from 1,400 yards in Year 1 to 1,616 yards in Year 2 to 1,809 yards last season. To reach 2,000, he needs to average just under 118 yards over 17 games. Jefferson is the kind of unstoppable force who can make that happen, especially in Year 2 of Kevin O'Connell's offense.....
The Griddy will be on full display in 2023, with No. 18 dancing his way into the record books."
Indeed, Jefferson would need to average 117.6 yards per game over 17 games to reach 2,000 yards this season. Matching Johnson's 122.8 yards per game from 2012 would put him at roughly 2,088 yards. To get to 1,965 yards, and "only" top Johnson, Jefferson would need to average 115.6 yards per game.
If Johnson's record does go down, this year or in the foreseeable future, Jefferson is a top candidate to do it. Of course for as long as he's a Viking, it will require two notable games against the Lions to get it done.