Buccaneers vs. Lions best NFL prop bets to targets for divisional round (Look at LaPorta)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Detroit Lions divisional playoff game on Sunday. 
Jan 14, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) runs after a catch in the playoffs against the Rams.
Jan 14, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) runs after a catch in the playoffs against the Rams. / Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

The Detroit Lions snapped the NFL’s longest playoff drought last weekend, advancing in the postseason for the first time in 32 years with a hard-fought 24-23 victory over the Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell’s crew was fortunate to stay in the Motor City for the second round. Can they advance to the NFC Championship for the first time since 1991? 

Tampa Bay has been an underdog story this season, soaring past its win total, winning the NFC South, and beating the favored reigning NFC-Champion Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round. Can Baker Mayfield continue his comeback story? 

Here are three props to consider when the Lions host the Buccaneers on Sunday. 

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Buccaneers vs. Lions best prop bets for divisional rounds

  • Sam LaPorta OVER 36.5 receiving yards
  • Baker Mayfield OVER 253.5 passing yards
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 90.5 receiving yards 

Sam LaPorta OVER 36.5 receiving yards

This total is reflective of LaPorta’s knee injury after his two-catch performance in the first round against the Rams and is nearly 16 yards lower than his average receiving output (52.3 per game) this season. 

LaPorta still played 80% of the snaps against the Rams and Tampa Bay is allowing 61.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. 

Over the last half of the season, a half-dozen tight ends soared through this number against the Buccaneers: Dalton Schultz (130 yards), George Kittle (89), Kyle Pitts (57), Tucker Kraft (57), Evan Engram (95) and Juwan Johnson (90). With an extra week to get healthier, look for LaPorta to take advantage on Sunday. 

Baker Mayfield over 253.5 passing yards

Detroit’s defense ranked No. 27 vs. the pass in the regular season and doesn’t pressure the quarterback well (No. 23). Those trends played out in Detroit’s first-round win as Rams’ quarterback Matthew Stafford was sacked just twice and racked up 367 yards through the air. 

Mayfield set a career-high this season with 4,044 yards and beat this number in four of his last games. Mayfield already took advantage of one sub-par pass defense in the postseason, totaling 337 yards through the air against Philadelphia. 

Detroit doesn’t have the talent in its secondary to match up with Tampa Bay, which had nine different players with a reception against the Eagles, five of which had 45 or more yards. Along with a positive game script as 6.5-point underdogs, Mayfield looks healthy and should take advantage against the Lions. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 90.5 receiving yards

Don’t fret over St. Brown having the biggest receiving total on the board. Tampa Bay is the only defense remaining in the NFL playoffs that is worse against the pass than Detroit, ranking No. 29. 

Getting to this number is all about opportunity and St. Brown certainly has that as quarterback Jared Goff’s favorite target. St. Brown eclipsed this yardage total in each of the last five games, with a trio of 100-yard performances in that span while averaging 10 targets per game.

St. Brown had 7 receptions (9 targets) for 110  yards against the Rams last week and ripped Tampa Bay for 12 catches (15 targets) and 124 yards in Detroit’s regular-season win over the Buccaneers in Week 6. Expect Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to make St. Brown a focal point on Sunday. 

Odds are updated periodically and are subject to change