Betting analyst is highly pessimistic about the Detroit Lions this year

After reaching the NFC Championship Game last season, expectations are high for the Detroit Lions heading into this season. They are the favorites to win the NFC North again, and regarded as a Super Bowl contender far and wide.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the Lions' 2024 regular season win total over-under at 10.5, with the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+1200), tied for the second-best odds to win the NFC (+550) and the best odds to win the NFC North (+130). Other sports books are presumably in similar territory.

Immediately after the NFC title game loss to the 49ers, Lions head coach Dan Campbell acknowledged the challenge that would be ahead. He and the players seem to be embracing a role as both the hunter and the hunted.

But within any consensus, there's naturally going to be dissenters.

Gambling analyst is way down on the Lions in 2024

Outkick betting analyst Geoff Clark is going through each NFL division with team-by-team previews. He kicked off the NFC North with a look at the Lions, starting optimistically.

'"Technically, the Lions have a "first-place schedule" in 2024, but it's beatable. Goff's biggest bugaboo is playing outdoors in winter conditions. That said, they will play 14 indoor games this season and its only "bad weather" game is at the Chicago Bears in Week 16. With this in mind, Detroit should be better in 2024, right? "

Then, Clark shifted course to his bottom line.

"The Lions seemingly converted every fourth-down and trick play Campbell dialed up. This point is sort of void of analysis, but Detroit won't get that lucky again in 2024. That's just how the NFL works."

"The market leans toward the Lions winning 11 games next season. However, I cannot back a team without a top-10 quarterback to have double-digit wins. Goff has turned his career around in Detroit. Nonetheless, he is the third-best quarterback in the NFC North and regression is coming from Goff and the Lions next year."

Clark also noted how the Lions went a fairly fortunate 6-3 in one-score games last year. He noted how they had only two wins (it was actually three) over playoff teams last year, and how they'll have eight games against 2023 playoff teams this year.

Clark predicted an 8-9 record for the Lions in 2024, and a third place finish in the NFC North.

Clark did name Jared Goff as a sleeper MVP candidate, and he highlighted Aidan Hutchinson having top-10 odds for Defensive Player of the Year on FanDuel Sportsbook. But he's down on the Lions overall this year; more than anyone out there.