The Lions pursuit of an NFC North crown continues to come into focus as the team returns home from Los Angeles in hopes of beating a division foe in the Chicago Bears.
Detroit's offense is fully healthy and has begun to let its rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs loose. Is there still value betting Gibbs player prop OVERS on Sunday against the Bears? I break that down, as well as how to bet on Sam LaPorta and who to fade on Chicago's rebuilding offense with Justin Fields set to return.
Best Prop Bets for Bears vs. Lions in Week 11
- Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 71.5 rushing and receiving yards
- Sam LaPorta OVER 46.5 receiving yards
- Justin Fields UNDER 47.5 rushing yards
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Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 71.5 rushing and receiving yards
In the wake of David Montgomery's injury a few weeks back, the Lions let it's rookie first round pick loose and it paid dividends. Now, with Montgomery back, the Lions are utilizing both stud running backs to enhance its elite offense.
Gibbs has continued to emerge as a threat in the rushing and passing game, totaling 20-plus touches in three straight games, so I'll continue to target the combined yardage prop. He cleared this mark on the ground alone last week (77 rushing yards) while adding 35 yards on three catches. That's three straight weeks that he has gone over 100 yards combined and in a favorable matchup against the 27th best defense in terms of EPA/Play, he should do it again.
Sam LaPorta OVER 46.5 receiving yards
Another rookie that is impressing in this Lions' scheme is the tight end LaPorta. This is a fairly average mark for him this season, he's averaging nearly 53 receiving yards per game this season, and draws a Bears defense that is 31st in EPA/Pass on the year.
LaPorta has five or more targets in all but one game this season, so I expect him to receive plenty of looks, and he has proven to be capable of ripping off explosive plays as well, totaling three plays of 30 or more yards.
This number may be implying the blowout potential of Sunday's matchup, but LaPorta's usage is too consistent not to go OVER.
Justin Fields UNDER 47.5 rushing yards
Fields returns to the field on Sunday, but draws a tough matchup against the Lions defense that is 11th in EPA/Rush on the year. While Fields was 1,100 yard rusher last season, he has been far more of a pocket passer in 2023, going over this mark in just two of six games (worth noting that he has games of 46 and 47 yards).
In his first game back and the threat of re-injuring his thumb with too much contact, I believe we see the Bears' quarterback avoid taking too many hits and stay under this above average mark, even if the game script may dictate more scrambles.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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