The Detroit Lions have a laundry list of players hitting free agency and a litany of decisions to make once March rolls around.
One of their trickiest is how to handle negotiations with edge rusher Al-Quadin Muhammad, who is set to hit the open market after playing the 2025 season on a one-year $1.4 million deal.
Muhammad has been one of the best signings of the Brad Holmes era. He signed with the Lions in October 2024 and went on to record three sacks that year in nine games. This past season with Aidan Hutchinson back in the fold opposite him, Muhammad had a career year.
He recorded 11.0 sacks and 15 solo tackles across 17 games as Hutchinson’s running mate off the edge for Detroit. It was great value for Detroit and an unexpected emergence from a player who many tabbed as little more than a depth piece entering the year.
With the Lions having no clear answer for a secondary pass rusher aside from Hutchinson, the idea of a quick fix for many Lions fans has been to re-sign Muhammad at all costs.
But the Lions have 20 unrestricted free agents hitting the market this offseason, and are projected to be $8.26 million over the cap according to Spotrac, which would place them 23rd in the NFL.
And it doesn’t sound like Muhammad has any plans of offering Detroit a hometown discount.
"I hope this team values me, and I will go where I’m valued at, to be honest,” he said. “I would love to be back here, but you ultimately go where you’re valued."
Muhammad might walk in free agency - and that could be a good thing for Lions
Those sound like the words of a man aiming for the most financial security possible. Hard to blame him.
But it does mean, in all likelihood, that Muhammad will not be back in Detroit in 2026. And while that might sound like a big loss at first, it’s probably for the best.
Muhammad had 15 sacks across his seven-year career before his 11-sack campaign in 2025. And of those 11 sacks for Detroit last year, 7.5 came in three games against the Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens.
And while Detroit finished tied with Minnesota for the fourth-most sacks in the NFL at 49, a closer look at the numbers suggests their pass rush wasn’t as effective as it seemed. The Lions’ average time to pressure of 2.92 seconds was the slowest in the NFL.
This meant opposing passers had more time to throw against Detroit than any other team. That, along with just how much of an outlier those 11 sacks were for Muhammad, and the fact that he will turn 31 this offseason, is all worth taking into consideration when judging how essential he was to this team.
Furthermore, Muhammad is a pure-pass rush specialist who doesn’t add much against the run. He was only on the field for 41.36% of the team’s defensive snaps in 2025. Is it really the Lions’ best option to sign him to a significant contract and cross their fingers he doesn’t decline in production?
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All of this to say that maybe that 11.0 sack figure has been blown a bit out of proportion, and may trigger an overpay that the Lions cannot afford to make. If he does get paid elsewhere, then the Lions would stand to gain a mid-to-late round compensatory pick.
That seems like the best route for the team to take. Muhammad was a great signing and one of the best value plays any general manager made last year, but his sack production doesn’t tell the whole story of how impactful he really was in 2025.
It will sting for Detroit to watch a success story walk in free agency and leave them without a clear No. 2 pass rusher, but it might just be the necessary step to take. Then, the Lions could take their comp pick and try to find a younger, cheaper replacement in the draft or free agency.
Some team will probably pay Muhammad a nice-sized contract this offseason, and it’s always good to see guys get paid for their hard work. But it would be in the Lions’ best interests long-term if they’re not the ones to do it.