Since late in his rookie season, Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the most prolific pass catchers in the NFL. Over the last five seasons, his career span, he has the most receptions (547) and the fourth-most receiving yards (6,252) in the league.
Over his first two seasons, though, touchdowns were elusive with just 11 on 196 total receptions. However, what happened during his second season pointed toward some big-time correction to come in that area.
Over the last three seasons, St. Brown has the most receiving touchdowns in the league with 33. In line with that, a combination of volume and scoring prowess befitting an elite-level receiver, he has finished precisely as the WR3 in fantasy football (regardless of scoring format) each of the last three years.
Consistency wins fantasy football titles, and the "Sun God" has been a poster boy for that.
2023: 119 receptions for 1,515 yards, 10 touchdowns, 330.9 fantasy points (full PPR)
2024: 115 receptions for 1,263 yards, 12 touchdowns; 316.2 fantasy points
2025: 117 receptions for 1,401 yards, 11 touchdowns, 324 fantasy points
One piece of data points to a potential buzzkill for Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2026
According to Pro Football Network, citing TruMedia data, St. Brown led the league in red zone target rate per route run last season by a fair margin.
Pass-catchers with the most red-zone targets per route run in 2025, per TruMedia 🎯
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) June 23, 2026
Which player are you targeting in fantasy? pic.twitter.com/EBfYcdTJK9
When we think about touchdown regression candidates around the league for this season, Davante Adams is a no-brainer after had a league-leading 14 scores on 60 catches last year. But St. Brown was one of four players who tied for second with 11, and while they play tight end, two of the others (Dallas Goedert and Trey McBride) also made the above list.
The absence of tight end Sam LaPorta for the final eight games last season is an easy reason to cite for a spike in red zone targets per route run. But in terms of actually scoring, St. Brown only had three touchdowns in the games LaPorta missed and he only had two more total red zone targets for the season than he had in 2024.
READ MORE: Kyle Pitts' extension may have just set Sam LaPorta's price with the Lions
The biggest threats to St. Brown's heavy red zone involvement this season, however it's broken down, may actually be in his own position group.
Second-year man Isaac TeSlaa is in line for a bigger role after scoring six touchdowns on just 16 catches last season. Five of his six scores as a rookie came in the red zone, on 10 targets in that area of the field.
Part of the next evolution for Jameson Williams could be more involvement in the red zone. Over the last two seasons he has basically half as many red zone targets (17) as St. Brown had last season alone (33).
The odds St. Brown leads the Lions in red zone targets again this season are good, and thus he's a solid bet to get to double-digit touchdowns again. But for the first time in awhile, there's an envisionable cap on his touchdown ceiling that can't be ignored.
Add us as a preferred source on Google