It would be surprising, to say the least, to see tonight’s game between the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions turn into a defensive slugfest.
The teams are set to christen new Highmark Stadium with a Thursday Night Football primetime showdown, and it feels like the kind of game where defense is optional. Both teams are coming off high-scoring Week 1 performances where their respective defenses looked shaky at best and like liabilities at worst.
Buffalo defeated the Houston Texans 36-31, its first win in Houston with Josh Allen at quarterback. Allen sliced up one of the best NFL defenses in recent memory, passing for 334 yards and two touchdowns and adding two more scores on the ground.
The Bills superstar quarterback was absolutely slinging it. He averaged 13.2 air yards per attempt, his highest in any game since the 2023 season. Allen had five completions of 30 yards or more, the most of any regular season game in his career, and the highest average depth of target of any quarterback in the NFL last week.
“We love chunk plays. That's how you score 36 points," Allen said. "You give yourself the opportunity to score on four or five plays in a drive, instead of the long methodical 13, 14, 15 plays.”
This is not good news for the embattled Detroit Lions secondary.
Detroit, Buffalo could be looking to exchange haymakers tonight
The Lions gave up six passing plays of 20-plus yards in their 31-30 survival of the New Orleans Saints last week. Only the Minnesota Vikings allowed more with seven, and that was largely due to the feast-or-famine nature of Brian Flores’ madman blitz strategy.
Detroit was playing much more honestly than Minnesota, and just getting burned.
Lions safety Avonte Maddox said the best way to limit Buffalo’s explosive plays is to “not let [the receivers] get behind you, because Allen is liable to make a crazy throw from anywhere on the field.
“It don't matter if he's scrambling out to the right, scrambling out to the left, he's still able to throw the deep ball,” Maddox said. “It's not like he's throwing a check down. He's still throwing it deep. When he does that, we’ve got to make sure we can be on top of the receiver and make sure we can come down with the ball.”
Detroit did pick off Saints quarterback Tyler Shough twice and sacked him five times. They’ll need even more havoc to be able to throw a player like Allen off his game.
“The quarterback is the key to all of this,” Lions head coach Dan Campbell said. “And if we don't make him go the long hard way every time, it can get very difficult.”
The LIons offense will need to keep up with a Bills unit that feels bound to make explosive plays no matter what Detroit’s shorthanded secondary throws at them. Either match Buffalo with huge plays of their own, or keep its offense off the field.
In Week 1, Buffalo ranked 26th in estimated points added per rush, surrendering 0.12 against the Texans. The Lions will need to capitalize on that in some way with superstar back Jahmyr Gibbs.
But Gibbs is coming off his career high in carries, and it’s a short week. To make matters more difficult, Detroit is down two starting offensive linemen in guard Christian Mahogany (hip) and tackle Blake Miller (knee). Center Cade Mays is of course also still on injured reserve.
READ MORE: Lions' path to beating Bills starts with Jahmyr Gibbs and ends with a bit of luck
Detroit put quarterback Jared Goff under center 47 times in Week 1, which tied a Lions career high, partly in an effort to get Gibbs more downhill rushing lanes. But with their offensive line severely limited, the Lions might have to consider some more shotgun looks to protect their quarterback.
That also, theoretically, creates more chances for Detroit’s wide receivers in space. The Lions’ offense wasn’t very explosive in Week 1 as much as it was benefiting from short fields (touchdown drives of 41 and 25 yards).
To keep pace with Buffalo, Detroit needs Jameson Williams to get deep, and Isaac TeSlaa to get on the stat sheet— especially if Gibbs has a bit more tread on his tires amid the short week.
This game might be a race to 35-or-so points. If it’s anything like the teams’ 2024 meeting, look out. We might have a good old fashioned track meet tonight.
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