Paying running backs isn't the sexiest idea for most NFL fans.
As The Athletic's Austin Mock wrote recently in a piece debating whether or not Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson should earn market-resetting deals with their impending extensions, betting on a running back to remain uber-consistent throughout their careers is an unbelievably gamble. Derrick Henry is the exception, not the rule.
But, that doesn't mean the Detroit Lions won't still pay their guy, especially if they're considering him to be the "bell cow" of their offense. In fact, that might force them to ante up for his extension, especially as Jared Goff - their other engine on offense - is much older than him.
Still, Mock doesn't feel good about the idea of the Lions "overpaying" for Gibbs, with the analyst sharing in the piece above that his NFL Projection Model has Gibbs as the 4th-best running back in the league, and with Mock projecting that he'll earn just a hair under $20 million per year on his new deal. For Robinson, he projects a deal worth nearly $22 million per year.
Analyst warns against overpay for Gibbs
Mock wrote that, while Gibbs is clearly a big talent in the league and for the Lions, he had a "down" year in 2025 which should give the Lions pause.
"I don't have the stomach for that much risk, not after seeing what happened to players like Elliott and Gurley. Perhaps Robinson and Gibbs will age like Henry, Taylor or McCaffrey and end up being worth $20 million per year right now, but history tells us that's not the best bet to make."
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Gibbs, who is 24 years old headed into this season, still managed to pick up 1,223 rushing yards on 243 carries in 2025. That's a "down" year for him, and likely was an outlier year impacted by numerous factors out of his control on offense. A bad offensive line and an offensive coordinator that did not know how to utilize his versatility as a back both played big roles in his..."slump."
Detroit probably saw last season and decided that Gibbs is still going to be worth keeping on for as long as possible, which also explains their decision to pick up his fifth-year option. While Mock is not as enthusiastic as the Lions probably are about doing whatever's necessary to make space for him on their books, the risk feels worth the reward.
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