The Detroit Lions didn't meet expectations in 2025, and were frustrated as a result. This season, most analysts believe that a significant bounce-back is coming that could even culminate in a Super Bowl run.
On paper, there's a lot to like about Detroit. The Lions have an easier schedule, better health and a more complete, improved roster heading toward the season. As a result, they have some fantastic odds to have a great 2026 season.
ESPN realizes this. In a new analysis by Aaron Schatz, the Lions are revealed to be the team most likely to have a worst-to-first turnaround this year. Schatz notes that Detroit has a 38.2% chance to win the NFC North, and a 68.4% chance to make the playoffs, sixth-best in the NFL. As a result, he likes the Lions plenty.
"Don't forget that Detroit had a winning record last season and was actually one win away from finishing second in the NFC North. And one of these years, the Lions might make it through a season without suffering the most defensive injuries of any team in the league. Detroit ranked dead last in adjusted games lost on defense last season, and only the Cardinals had more injuries overall."
"The Lions' schedule ranks 27th in the league by the average projected DVOA of their opponents; the other three teams in the NFC North all have schedules ranked 18th or harder. Getting Arizona on their schedule instead of the other three NFC West teams is huge, but the Lions also play the Giants and Titans instead of the tougher teams their division rivals must face."
While the Lions play an easier schedule, their direct foes will play a much tougher one. That should allow Detroit a chance to pile up wins and stay ahead of the curve. Assuming they can handle business with their divisional opponents, it could give them a great shot to return to first place this season.
2025 49ers offer Lions a major cautionary tale ahead of 2026 season
In spite of all those positives, there is still a cautionary tale to be had within Schatz's analysis. The San Francisco 49ers were in a similar boat going into last season. They had been hurt the year before, missed the playoffs and were eying an easier schedule as well as what most believed to be an easy bounce-back year where they could make a playoff run.
San Francisco did have a decent season given they went 12-5, but they were an average 6-4 in early November before rattling off six straight wins and getting help to make the NFC postseason as a wild card. They did beat the Philadelphia Eagles, but were humiliated in the next round 41-6 by the Seahawks. Schatz is keen to bring their example up.
"The Lions have by far the best odds to go from worst to first for three main reasons: schedule, injuries and they weren't really that bad last season. Of course, this is exactly what I wrote about the 49ers a year ago, so there certainly are no guarantees."
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Within the division, the 49ers tied for second, placing behind the Seahawks and in a tie with the Los Angeles Rams. Safe to say plenty of people didn't see those kinds of elite seasons coming from San Francisco's top rivals. Even though the 49ers had a good season, it was eclipsed by two in-division opponents who faced off in the NFC Championship.
The same could potentially happen to the Lions. Detroit plays in the tough NFC North, where all four teams could be seen as viable threats to not only win the division, but make a playoff run as well. If the Lions aren't careful head-to-head, this could happen to them.
In the offseason, it seems as if the Lions are one of the best bets in the league to have a fantastic season and rebound off the misfortune of last year. It is wise to remember history shows nothing is a guarantee.
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