When Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell came aboard as the new general manager and head coach of the Detroit Lions in 2021, the roster had to be torn down so it could be built back up the right way. The best way to get that done was through the draft, and it has worked very well.
However, we are now at a point of potential frustration. A section of Lions fans and followers have grown weary of Holmes constantly citing "financial constraints" for not making notable moves, while the general managers of other NFC contenders don't make that excuse and somehow manage to get noteworthy things done.
Not to mention that some of those teams have actually reached and/or won a Super Bowl in recent years, while Campbell's words after the NFC Championship Game loss to close the 2023 season echo.
“I told those guys, this may have been our only shot,” Campbell said after the game. “Do I think that? No. Do I believe that? No. However, I know how hard it is to get here. I’m well aware. And it’s gonna be twice as hard to get back to this point next year than it was this year. That’s the reality. And if we don’t have the same hunger and the same work — which is a whole ‘nother thing once we get to the offseason — then we got no shot of getting back here."
Right or wrong, in regard to getting to or winning a Super Bowl, Holmes is not going to change his approach to roster building. Any questions about his job security are far off, if they ever really come. While there's power in that kind of job security, in terms of making aggressive moves, Holmes is more likely to dig into his approach.
Lions' road to a Super Bowl might actually be paved the right way
In peak early-to-mid July content, ESPN's Bill Barnwell took a look at the top 20 players, split even between both sides of the ball, on each of the 30 teams who have made the last 15 Super Bowls. How those players land on the roster (the draft, a trade or free agency) was the core premise.
The entire piece is worth a read, but let's skip to a couple of Barnwell's takeaways from the exercise.
2. Drafting and developing is essential.
"It's a common trope, of course, but every team builds a significant portion of its core with homegrown talent. Every one of our 30 teams over these 15 years drafted at least nine of their 20 starters or signed them as undrafted free agents. A handful of teams -- most recently the 2024 Chiefs -- had as many 15 homegrown starters on their runs to the Super Bowl. The average was 12.2 starters, or 61% of the key players on the roster."
4. Each team builds through only a handful of high-profile moves.
"Let's split transactions into two groups, as I've been doing here and there throughout the column. On the expensive end, let's consider top-10 draft picks, high-profile trades and high-end free agents. On the low end, let's take Day 3 picks, undrafted free agents and low-cost free agents."
"The average team from our 30-roster group has just three of those ultra-expensive players among its 20-person core...For all the attention we understandably pay to a team's top players, even in an era with cost-controlled first-round picks, every Super Bowl squad needs to land a handful of players who can hold their own without being significant acquisitions."
READ MORE: Roger McCreary might be the Lions' most overlooked offseason addition
The Lions' pipeline of Day 3 (or even Day 2) draft picks who have become notable contributors has slowed to a trickle over the last couple years, so that's a potential concern in regard to the latter takeaway from Barnwell. As the last of the top draft picks from Holmes' first three drafts graduate to big second contacts, it's unclear (at best) if anyone is going to follow them performance that deserves similar stature.
Optimistic Lions' fans are happy to see proof a draft and develop philosophy, paired with hesitance to make big moves, can yield a Super Bowl appearance (and a win) based on recent history. The question is if it will, or if at some point Holmes will have to consider making at least one bold move to add someone he didn't draft.
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