Despite a last-place finish last season and a host of issues plaguing the team, the Detroit Lions are the favorites to win the NFC North in 2026 by at least one major news outlet.
In its NFL newsletter Monday, The Athletic’s Jacob Robinson projected the Lions to win their third division title in four years. He predicted them to finish 12-5, followed by the Green Bay Packers at 10-7 and the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears both at 9-8.
Robinson wrote:
"A last-place finish gives Detroit the league’s easiest schedule. That, plus its talent on both sides of the ball, makes it a likely bounce-back season after falling from 15-2 to 9-8 last year. The Lions have significant questions, but they are my dark horse Super Bowl pick. The injury luck has to change eventually, right?"Jacob Robinson, The Athletic
The Lions are also still listed as the NFC North favorites on ESPN. They finished 2-4 in the division last season.
Lions remain heavy favorites in juggernaut division
For a returning last-place finisher, it’s actually pretty easy to make the case for the Lions. They return arguably the league’s most talented collection of skill players, a productive veteran quarterback and a couple of stars on defense.
Detroit was hit hard by the regression of its offensive line, departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and injuries to its defense last season.
The bad news is their effort to revamp the offensive line took a major blow with the injury to free-agent center pickup Cade Mays, who is expected to miss 8-10 weeks.
There are also serious issues plaguing the secondary after the offseason release of Terrion Arnold and severe injuries to their star safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. The Lions will likely be trotting out the likes of D.J. Reed, Rock Ya-Sin, Christian Izien and Chuck Clark as their starting secondary to begin the season— far from ideal.
But if new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing can help revive the run game and keep the passing attack afloat, the Lions’ offense should be able to remain atop the league in scoring.
The defense is still anchored by Aidan Hutchinson, Jack Campbell and Alim McNeill— with some other solid players in the front seven like Tyleik Williams, Malcolm Rodriguez and Derrick Barnes.
The reigning division champ Chicago Bears return an ascending young quarterback in Caleb Williams and a trio of promising young pass-catchers in Colston Loveland, Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze.
But a defense that didn’t play well last year got younger and more inexperienced this season. The offseason trade of D.J. Moore removes a known commodity from the offense.
Plus, their Pro Bowl center retired out of nowhere in his late 20s this offseason. Ask a Lions fan how fun that can be.
Chicago is in a similar boat as Detroit– they’ll need an offensive explosion to offset what looks like another bad defense.
The Green Bay Packers have one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league in Jordan Love, one of the league’s best players in edge Micah Parsons and a beast of a tight end in Tucker Kraft. But both of those last two players are coming off of torn ACLs.
They still need second-year wideout Matthew Golden to step up and Christian Watson to put together a full season that justifies his mammoth contract extension. And as The Athletic pointed out, the offseason arrest of running back Josh Jacobs casts a dark cloud over the status of the running game.
Green Bay’s defense struggled mightily without Parsons and didn’t add much beyond linebacker Zaire Franklin and journeyman defensive tackle Javon Hargrave. It may not be the strongest unit, especially to begin the season without Parsons in the lineup.
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Minnesota is perhaps the biggest wild-card in the division due to the acquisition of quarterback Kyler Murray. The Vikings had one of the league’s best defenses a year ago, the best receiver in football in Justin Jefferson and a good No. 2 in Jordan Addison, but the season was tanked by terrible quarterback play. (And they still went 9-8).
The biggest question surrounding the Vikings is if Murray can stay healthy and consistent enough to elevate this team to contender status. The rest of the pieces look like they’re there, save for a shaky running game.
Last year, the NFC North joined the 2023 AFC North as the second division in NFL history where every team finished with a winning record. It’s hard to say any of these teams— for all the nits you can pick— got much worse this offseason.
Barring a catastrophic injury, any of these four teams are a solid pick for the division crown. But Detroit’s proven offensive track record and reshaped offensive line give it a high floor– even with the Mays injury.
If the defense can stay healthy and Detroit gets good football out of just one of Branch or Joseph, it could still be the second-best defense in this division. That feels like a recipe for a division title, especially with a last-place schedule in front of them.
But that’s a lot of “ifs”, and the Lions haven’t exactly had things line up perfectly for them lately in terms of health. 2026 is shaping up to be another gauntlet of a division.
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