There's no reason to dance around it; Kelvin Sheppard is coaching for his job over the next two and a half months. The Detroit Lions defensive coordinator hasn't been cutting it this season, and a franchise with clear Super Bowl aspirations won't hesitate to move on if he can't right the ship.
Of course, his personnel hasn't exactly helped him out, but the responsibility to produce a capable defense still falls on his shoulders at the end of the day.
Sheppard has a perfect opportunity to regain some trust in Week 8. Ironically, his best path to doing so is to take a page out of his opponent's playbook. The Lions take on the undefeated Minnesota Vikings, who have revamped their offense with Kyler Murray this season.
If he channels Brian Flores' chaos, Sheppard can shut Murray down and reestablish himself as a positive force in Detroit.
Lions DC Kelvin Sheppard must use Brian Flores' strategy to stop Kyler Murray
Flores was already known for sending exotic blitzes before this season, but he's turned up the dial in a major way. According to SumerSports, the Vikings are blitzing on 69.1% of their defensive snaps so far this year. That's the highest rate of any defense in the last five years — by a margin of about 20 percentage points.
He typically runs zone blitzes, sending five or six rushers and dropping the rest. Flores runs zone at the league's third-highest rate, which isn't exactly typical for blitz-heavy teams.
It's working for him, too. The Vikings have been the NFL's best defense this year, based on almost any metric.
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As it turns out, zone blitzes have been Murray's kryptonite. He ranks 38th out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play against six or more rushers. Against zone coverage, he's 28th in EPA per play and 38th in success rate.
Sheppard isn't exactly known for heating up opposing quarterbacks. He blitzes at a below-average rate and doesn't typically do much to confuse passers. That has to change this weekend.
Nobody's asking Sheppard to completely scrap his scheme in the span of a week, but he needs to adjust his sliders a bit against Murray. Bring a few more zone blitzes, especially in obvious passing situations, and reap the benefits. The more pre-snap shifts, stunts, and rotations, the better.
Now that he has Brian Branch back, Sheppard can afford to be a bit more creative with his defensive backs. He has to take advantage against Minnesota. If the defensive coordinator can put on a masterclass in a crucial NFC North win, he might finally silence his doubters.
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