Tonight’s NFL draft is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable we’ve seen in recent memory. Beyond the foregone conclusion of quarterback Fernando Mendoza going to the Las Vegas Raiders, it’s anyone’s guess how the remaining 256 picks will play out.
That's a perfect environment for Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes, who has established himself as one of the league’s most unpredictable GMs since taking over the role in 2021.
There are a couple of major perceived needs on the Lions’ roster, offensive tackle and edge rusher chief among them, but tying Detroit to a particular prospect at one of those positions in the No. 17 range might not be the safest bet.
The Lions have the No. 17 pick in the first round, but not a ton of day two capital after trading both their 2026 third round picks last year to move up for wideout Isaac TeSlaa. They’ve got a litany of day three picks (five in the last three rounds!) and it’s tough to imagine those all being used by the team.
It all makes the possibility of a trade down in the first round as part of an effort to recoup some day two picks very possible.
Lions could be busy on the phones if latest intel holds weight
The Detroit Free Press’ Dave Birkett reported this morning Holmes had a Zoom call with UCF pass rusher Malachi Lawrence this week. Lawrence has surged up draft boards lately thanks to a strong NFL Combine showing that showcased his explosiveness. He is a projected first-round pick by The Athletic, NFL Stock Exchange, ESPN, CBS Sports and more.
But none of those mocks had him going as high as No. 17, so if the Lions do like him, it makes a trade down seem possible.
Yesterday, Lions beat reporter Tim Twentyman posted a list of 11 players who could fit the Lions, and only Georgia offensive tackle Monroe Freeling and Auburn edge rusher Keldric Faulk seem to be in the No. 17 conversation.
The rest of the names seem like late first rounders and day two selections. That’s interesting, considering the Lions don’t have either of those sorts of picks in spades. Could Twentyman be insinuating a move down in the first round for Detroit in order to target some of these guys?
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Of course, it takes two to tango, and the No. 17 pick isn’t exactly the type of pick teams are usually pining to move up for. But this is an especially unpredictable draft. If there’s a run on, say, wide receivers or offensive tackles, it’s entirely possible some team picking in the 20s will see their guy slipping away and make the call to Holmes.
The Lions should feel the pressure this year to add some young, impactful talent right away. Their contention window is slipping away and while the roster is still strong, it could use a bit of a youth movement.
The best way to do that is by targeting players on the first two days of the draft. The Lions only have two picks in the first three rounds and could really stand to add more. Trading down would allow them to plug multiple holes on the roster, and more high-end draft picks means they aren’t as tied down to drafting for “need” with a given pick--- which they have made very, very clear they don’t do.
It’s always best to expect the unexpected with this Lions regime. We could see the Lions come away with a very different set of picks than the ones that are currently penciled in for them this weekend.
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