There's a clear mismatch on paper ahead of the Detroit Lions-Miami Dolphins matchup this week.
The Lions enter the game well-positioned to throw the ball all over the yard.
Detroit is No. 1 in the NFL in estimated points added (EPA) per pass play, at 0.23, per SumerSports. The Lions' 53 percent success rate through the air is second only to the San Francisco 49ers.
Quarterback Jared Goff is playing some of the best football of his career, having thrown for 1,964 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just one interception through seven games.
Combine the passing production with the year Jahmyr Gibbs has had on the ground, and it's made the Lions' offense a pick-your-poison attack. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has the offense humming and talked this week about the benefit of forcing defenses to respect both a potent run game and pass game simultaneously.
"When both of those things are playing at a high level, I think you put the defense in a little bit of a bind there in terms of well, which one are you taking away?" he said. "And where are your matchups that you feel comfortable exposing a little bit?"
By comparison, the 1-6 Dolphins have had a tough time defending the pass. Their 0.26 EPA allowed per pass play and 52.5 percent passing success rate allowed are both the worst in the NFL.
Lions offense is a mismatch for struggling Dolphins defense
First-year Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley, who also calls defensive plays for Miami, admitted the Lions' offense doesn't have any easy ways to shut it down.
"They could hit you from a variety of different angles, whether it's in the run game or the pass game," he said. "I view that as a challenge that we look forward to. I mean, anytime you get a chance to go up against the top offense in the league, you need to prepare and you need to rise up to the level that you're going to play against. And for a young group of guys, I think it's really exciting."
Hafley has plenty of familiarity with the Lions' offense after serving as the Green Bay Packers' defensive coordinator from 2024 to 2025. But this current Miami defense – particularly in the secondary – is significantly less stocked with talent than even the weakest Packers defense under Hafley.
Jason Marshall Jr. and JuJu Brents have struggled as the Dolphins' top two corners. Rookie nickel Chris Johnson has flashed some, but is still a rookie and has his growing pains. Michael Taaffe and Dante Trader Jr. are an inexperienced safety duo learning on the fly.
Plus, Miami's pass rush, which ranks 12th-worst in pressure rate and has the third-fewest sacks in the league, hasn't done much to speed up quarterbacks.
Conversely, there are plenty of options for Goff to hit through the air, and they all have skill sets that complement one another.
Slot superstar Amon-Ra St. Brown has been up to his usual tricks, leading the Lions in all major categories with 53 catches for 571 yards and five touchdowns. After a tough start to the season, deep-threat dynamo Jameson Williams has hauled in 27 passes for 437 yards and five touchdowns, with all five scores coming in the last three games.
Sam LaPorta has also been one of the best tight ends in the NFL, hauling in 31 catches for 367 yards and three scores this season. Not to mention, Gibbs, the engine of the offense, has been electric out of the backfield. He's caught 34 passes for 285 yards and two touchdowns.
The Lions are coming off an emotional week after the serious injury to Jack Campbell, and need to get back to what they do best in this one. That may involve a hyper-efficient passing day from Goff and this offense. The Lions' quarterback could finally get his first career win over the Dolphins.
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