The Detroit Lions took Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, and it's been a wise investment every since. Gibbs has made the Pro Bowl in each year of his career and has scored 49 offensive touchdowns since being drafted.
Whether on the ground or as a receiver, Gibbs has been an elite, perhaps even generational player thus far, and that isn't an exaggeration. Now only turning 24 years old, Gibbs is already eligible for a contract extension, and there's no reason to believe why he won't get a major one this offseason.
Players of Gibbs' caliber get paid, and there's really no gray area here. At some point this offseason, the Lions front office should get something done with the player, and we're going to try and predict just how much he'll get.
The Detroit Lions will surely have to pay up to extend Jahmyr Gibbs this offseason
ESPN's Adam Schefter was also pretty matter-of-fact when talking about Gibbs and the running back market for this offseason:
"To me, the group that I was watching going into the offseason was not wide receiver, where Jaxon Smith-Njigba already has been paid and where we think Puka Nacua also will get paid, but running back," Schefter said.
"Take a look at the running backs right now, Ty. Bijan Robinson, gonna cash in. Jahmyr Gibbs, gonna cash in. De'Von Achane, gonna cash in. There are going to be some huge running back deals that get done at some point this offseason. So, whereas we've already seen one big wide receiver deal, get ready for the parade of running backs because that's what's coming next."
He's going to get paid, period. Through three seasons, Gibbs has amassed 5,029 scrimmage yards, has averaged 5.3 yards per carry, and has averaged 1,745 scrimmage yards per season. The sheer amount of production he brings could make him paid like a running back and a receiver.
Let's get into some numbers here. The length of the deal should be rather simple to predict. Four years is seen as a 'normal' term length, and all of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, Aidan Hutchinson, and Alim McNeil have gotten four-year extensions from the Lions recently.
This should indeed be the case with Gibbs, especially given he's only set to play in his age-24 season in 2026. Gibbs is also surely going to 'beat' the current highest-paid figures among running back contracts. Josh Jacobs leads the way with total value, coming in at $48 million. Saquon Barkley is the leader in the clubhouse at average amount per year and total guaranteed, with $20.6 million and $36 million, respectively.
Gibbs is going to reset these numbers. Given that paying running backs, though, isn't always seen as smart business, the Lions might not blow the market out of the water, but General Manager Brad Holmes should still negotiate quite a raise.
The highest-paid running backs after Barkley on a per-year basis are Christian McCaffrey at $19 million, and Derrick Henry at $15 million. McCaffrey's per-year value is 126.67 percent higher than Henry's, and Barkley's per-year value is 108.42 percent higher.
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The raise for Gibbs might come in this ballpark. If Gibbs got 115 percent more per-year than Barkley got, he'd come in at $23.69 million per season. This would represent a raise in the ballpark of the jump that McCaffrey got over Henry and Barkley got over McCaffrey.
A four-year deal worth $23.69 million per season would come out to a total value of $94.76 million. As for the guarantees, it might be a bit harder to figure out, as Ashton Jeanty has the second-highest guarantees at $35,895,812 million, but that's due to his draft position.
Would it be out of the question for Gibbs to reach $50 million in guaranteed dollars? I don't think so. Given how much he's going to get on a per-year basis, getting $50 million guaranteed feels like a realistic number.
If the Lions and Gibbs agreed on a four-year deal worth $94.76 million, containing $50 million in guarantees, would that be a fair deal for both sides?