As David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have teamed up to form the best running back duo in the NFL, fantasy football managers have been happy to have either of them (or both?) on a roster. At the same time, there has been a "what if?" element, as in "what if one of them had the clear-cut workhorse role?"
We got glimpses of that when Montgomery and Gibbs each missed some time last season, leaving the other as the lead back. In the three full games Montgomery missed in 2023, here's what Gibbs did fantasy-wise. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry in those games.
Week 3: 18 touches, 82 total yards-9.2 fantasy points (full PPR)
Week 7: 20 touches, 126 total yards-27.6 fantasy points
Week 8: 31 touches, 189 total yards-29.9 fantasy points
Montgomery suffered a torn MCL against the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, and on Monday Lions head coach Dan Campbell said he will have season-ending surgery.
With Montgomery out, Campbell has already twice declared Gibbs will be the Lions' lead back. There is an inherent element of being careful not to overwork him, as Campbell noted in mentioning Craig Reynolds and Sione Vaki. But Gibbs will get all the work he can handle, and the passing game work in the Lions' backfield feels sure to basically become his alone.
RELATED: 5 fantasy football waiver wire replacement for Lions RB David Montgomery
Fantasy Football 2024: Jahmyr Gibbs has clear path to finish as the RB1
Entering Week 16, Gibbs is the RB3 in fantasy regardless of scoring format (standard, 0.5-point PPR, full PPR). And that's with averaging 13.3 carries and 16.8 opportunities (carries and targets) per game. Having 14 total touchdowns helps of course, but he's the RB3 thus far without nearly the volume of, as the top examples, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry or Alvin Kamara.
In Week 16 Gibbs gets a nice matchup against the Chicago Bears, who are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season (Yahoo! scoring, 0.5-point PPR). They have also been very vulnerable to perimeter runs, which are in Gibbs' wheelhouse (which is not to diminish the physicality he can put on display too).
In Week 17 the Lions will take on the San Francisco 49ers, who enter Week 16 allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to running backs (Yahoo! scoring). San Francisco has allowed a 100-yard rusher in three of their last four games, and two of them (Kyren Williams and Josh Jacobs) had more than 25 carries.
While Barkley, Henry and Kamara (the backs above him right now, depending on scoring format) are fading/banged up, Gibbs enters the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs with comparatively very fresh legs and two nice matchups on his schedule.
Gibbs fantasy managers who are still alive in their playoffs are very well lined up to win their leagues now, and his path to finishing as the RB1 this year is wide open.