Entering Week 11, Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is a top-10 fantasy wide receiver this season any way you slice it scoring system-wise (standard, full PPR, 0.5-point PPR). He has scored in seven straight games, which is a franchise record.
Still, driven by a lack of passing volume from Jared Goff and some Lions' blowout wins, St. Brown has topped 60 yards once in his last six games (below 50 yards three times). In nine games this season, he has 60 or more yards four times.
To put it bluntly, St. Brown has been very touchdown-dependent and with three games the Lions should have little trouble winning handily coming (Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears), it's hard to see the target volume he has had in previous years coming back before the fantasy playoffs.
The trade deadline is fantasy football is coming soon in most leagues. With that in mind, fantasy analyst Josh Larky led his Week 11 players to sell with St. Brown. The article is paywalled, but Larky made his case on Twitter.
Fantasy Football 2024: Is Amon-Ra St. Brown a prime sell-high candidate?
Amon-Ra St. Brown is scoring a TD slightly more than 10% of the time he is targeted this year
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) November 13, 2024
For context, Amon-Ra would have had
12 TDs in 2021 (he actually had 5)
15 TDs in 2022 (he actually had 6)
17 TDs in 2023 (he actually had 10)
if his 2024 TD luck had applied to those… https://t.co/Cf01sXM0bN
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a SELL
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) November 13, 2024
(hear me out)
The Bad
He's averaging 7.4 targets per game (23rd) 🟡
And 58 yards per game (32nd) 🟡
At an average of 7 yards downfield (68th) 🔴
The Good
A catch rate above 80% (5th) 🟢
11 red zone targets (5th)🟢
Scored a TD in 7 straight games🟢…
The bottom line is St. Brown's touchdown fortune, which he hasn't always had, has been unsustainably good so far this season. Larky has responded the expected backlash he's getting with data, and frankly the same fantasy concerns that apply to Goff going forward also apply to his No. 1 wide receiver to some extent.
Chris O'Brien of Player Profiler also has St. Brown as a player to sell in fantasy heading to Week 11, with the same context.
"St. Brown has been a touchdown machine, scoring in seven straight games, but he’s been highly touchdown-dependent. He’s posted 75 or more yards just three times on the season (33-percent of his games). This Lions team is dominating opponents, leaving little reason to utilize St. Brown and the passing game. Even in a dream scenario in Week 10, where the Lions trailed early against a pass-funnel defense, St. Brown still only posted 60 receiving yards. The next three matchups line up to be more domination from the Lions against the Jaguars (likely with Mac Jones), the Colts, and the struggling Bears. Look to flip Amon-Ra for guys with higher weekly upside who are less likely to get game scripted out of production, like Puka Nacua, DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, or Nico Collins."
The idea of selling high on St. Brown as the fantasy football trade deadline nears, of course, does not come without applying realistic context.
For a St. Brown fantasy manager to consider trading him, they'd have to be deep at wide receiver and clearly need help elsewhere. I don't see, as O'Brien suggested, being able to trade St. Brown for Nacua, Metcalf or Brown (but maybe Collins?). But for an upgrade at running back? Sure. As a example, good or otherwise, Larky likes Packers running back Josh Jacobs as someone to try to acquire for St. Brown.