The Detroit Lions just made a big move, trading away fan favorite running back David Montgomery to the Houston Texans. That in and of itself wasn't a big surprise. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler had reported last week that Montgomery was asking permission to seek a trade since his role was diminishing in Detroit's offense.
The Lions are also reaching unprecedented times in terms of cash commitments to a talented roster and needed the cash relief.
What was surprising was the compensation that the Lions were able to extract from the Texans in the deal - a 2026 fourth round pick, a 2027 seventh round pick, and interior offensive lineman Juice Scruggs. Houston has two fourth round picks this year, but I believe it will be their later pick (#128) that is headed Detroit's way.
This is an absolute haul for the Lions. I'll explain why. Beware. There will be math.
David Montgomery's value
If Montgomery were a free agent this year, he likely could get a deal averaging about $8.75 million per year. That's somewhere between James Conner's 2022 contract with a $7 million APY that was equivalent to 3.36% of that year's salary cap and David Johnson's 2021 deal that had a $5 million APY that was about 2.46% of that year's (adjusted) salary cap.
Montgomery is under contract for two more years. But, he is approaching 30. I am using a 25% discount rate on his value in 2027 to account for age decline. That brings his on-field value to about $15.3 million. He is owed a total of $15 million in cash over the next two years, so his talent provides about $300k in surplus value.
Add that surplus value to his on-field value (the $15.3 million originally calculated) and you have a total value of $15.6 million that Detroit sent to Houston.
But what they got back was a lot more.
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The trade package
Let's start with Scruggs. He hasn't lived up to his draft status as a second rounder. Last year he logged just 334 snaps and allowed a pressure rate of almost 8% on true pass sets, while grading out as a poor run blocker per Pro Football Focus.
But, he provides the Lions with another option as they try to figure out their fluctuating offensive line. Scruggs still has some value. He could probably fetch $2 million on the open market if he were a free agent on the basis of his youth and experience. What's more, Detroit only owes him just over $1.5 million, so there is $500k in surplus value for a total of about $2.5 million in total value.
Now on to the picks.
Following extensive research I have done in the past, pick 128 in this year's draft is worth $18.74 million. A 2027 seventh is harder to peg because a) we don't know the exact pick number at this time and b) the pick can't be used for over a year, so there needs to be a time value discount. So some assumptions have to be made.
For the purpose of this exercise, I am going to use pick 225 as a proxy, assuming Houston is a fringe playoff team in 2026 and a 10% discount rate to account for the pick being in 2027. That puts its value at $5.238 million.
Adding up the entirety of the package comes to around $26.5 million. The difference is close to $11 million. That's like netting a free 6th round draft pick.
A second scenario
There is another scenario that is entirely possible that could transpire that would make this deal look even better for Detroit (although I hope it doesn't come to fruition). Montgomery will be 30 years old at the start of the 2027 season. He will also be owed an non-guaranteed $9 million. The aging curves on running backs can be sharp and unkind.
There is a world where his play falls off to the point the Texans cut him before he finishes the balance of his current deal. If that were to happen, his valuation in this trade would change substantially. His net value to the Texans would drop to just $11.5 million and the next surplus Detroit would pick up would increase to almost $15 million - the equivalent of a 4th round pick.
Any way you slice it, this is good business for the Lions. They save important cash to spend on other positions of need and pick up three assets that can be helpful in the near future.