Amid all the more severe-looking for the Detroit Lions during their Week 15 loss to the Buffalo Bills, it was easy to set aside how running back David Montgomery suffered a knee injury in the game. Head coach Dan Campbell also didn't seem too concerned about it right after the game.
But things escalated quickly on Monday. First came reports that Montgomery had a torn MCL and could miss the rest of the season. Later, Campbell told reporters Montgomery was going to have season-ending surgery.
So Montgomery will end the 2024 season with 775 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground in 14 games. It will be his career-low for rushing yards, as he topped 800 yards on the ground in each of his first five seasons. Against the Bills, due as much to the Lions not being able to commit to the run as his injury, Montgomery had just four yards on five carries.
If you were to have placed a bet on Montgomery's season rushing yardage going into the season (where it's legal to do so, of course), the over on an over/under in the 750-800 yard range would've felt like a slam-dunk. Only an injury, likely costing him multiple games, would keep that bet from cashing at season's end. That's sometimes the way it goes though, and it's a risk that's embraced if you're going to bet.
David Montgomery injury created an all-time epic bad beat
The line on Montgomery's season total for rushing yards may have been taken off all the sportsbooks now, since bets should no longer be allowed to be placed on it. But it has been revealed the over/under was set at 775.5 rushing yards when bets could be placed, so Montgomery literally needed one more yard to hit the over.
David Montgomery is out for the remainder of the season...
— br_betting (@br_betting) December 17, 2024
If you bet Over on his Season Total Rushing Yards, look away 🫣 pic.twitter.com/4RIFJK0laU
David Montgomery finishes the season under his rushing yards total by half a yard.
— ESPN BET (@ESPNBET) December 17, 2024
Dan Campbell confirmed on Monday that Montgomery will undergo season-ending knee surgery. pic.twitter.com/5c51VjIily
As chronicled by Prince J. Grimes of USA TODAY's "For The Win", people have come out with conspiracy theories about Montgomery narrowly missing the over on his season-long rushing yards. As if an injury was rigged/scripted to happen, or there were a significant enough number of bets on Montgomery's rushing yardage to become a potential bane of sportsbooks' existence if the over came in.
Strange things happen, and bettors have to embrace the risk of losing. The aforementioned conspiracy theorists here probably didn't even bet on Montgomery if they could have. But it is an undeniably bad beat for those who did bet the over on his rushing yards, and it'll be next to impossible for there to ever be another quite like it.