Over his five seasons as Detroit Lions head coach, Dan Campbell has shown he's far more than the perceived meathead who offered "knee cap biting" as a metaphor for what his team would be about during his introductory press conference.
Campbell, as a CEO-type head coach with some influence over the offense, has set a credible, sustainable culture in Detroit. The success of the last few years has raised expectations in-kind, to the point a 9-8 finish last season landed with a disappointing thud. It also led to a top-to-bottom evaluation of things this offseason.
While the Lions' window to win a Super Bowl is absolutely open, it is narrowing with each year short of that goal. It's worth wondering if the ceiling with the roster as it's currently constructed was already reached with an NFC Championship Game appearance after the 2023 season.
Finishing last in the NFC North last season, due to losing both games to the Minnesota Vikings and thus losing the tiebreaker, provided a benefit for the Lions this year. A last-place schedule makes them ripe for a rebound this season, perhaps all the way back to the top of the division.
Campbell would probably say there's pressure to win every year, so 2026 isn't any different. But another disappointing finish, in light of the aforementioned favorable-looking schedule, would be eye-opening to say the least.
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The idea of there being more pressure on Campbell after last year's underachievement, and general manager Brad Holmes by connection, isn't a fresh one. It's also fair to say Campbell, when it comes changing what has been a comfortable mode of operation, has outpaced Holmes in response to last year's failure.
Bill Williamson of SB Nation has Campbell on his list of five surprising hot seat candidates among NFL head coaches if things don't go as planned (or hoped) this season.
"Overall, Campbell has done a good job making the Lions relevant and he runs a strong program. But if the Lions, who went 9-8, fail to make the playoffs for a second year in a row and show signs of regression, he could be in trouble. The NFC North is stacked and the Lions’ window may be getting tighter. So, there’s not a lot of time to fool around in the Motor City."
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Rumors of atypical discourse between Campbell and Holmes this offseason were pretty quickly shut down by both guys. But it's fair to wonder if Campbell generally questioned why seemingly affordable moves weren't made, knowing he'll pay the price for underachieving with a roster that's not fully equipped to win at the highest level.
Even if the Lions, as an example, finish 9-8 again this season, it's incredibly unlikely Campbell (or Holmes) will be fired. The heat would be turned way up on both of their seats heading toward 2027, though, and changes would be closer to happening than at any other point in their tenures.
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