The NFL trade deadline is a little bit away still, yet also fast-approaching, and the week leading to Halloween has brought some notable activity. The biggest move to this point came within the NFC North, as the Chicago Bears sent three draft picks, including their next two first-rounders, to the Tennessee Titans for defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons.
Now Lions fans wait to see what general manager Brad Holmes is going to do before the trade deadline, if anything. Parts of the fan base/those who cover the team want to cope by highlighting how trades of the Simmons-to-the-Bears ilk rarely lead to a Super Bowl win that season.
Ryan Paganetti is a former NFL coach and Director of Analytics, and he has become a must-follow on Twitter for deeper looks at football things. He recently pointed to when trade deadline deals have happened over the last 20 seasons, from 13 days out down to deadline day.
From 13 days out down to two days out, there have not been as many trades total (53) as on deadline day alone (58). One day out from the trade deadline over the last 20 seasons, 18 trades have gone down.
Over five previous trade deadlines as Lions' general manager, Holmes has made three trades around the trade deadline That's a pretty good trade rate near the deadline, relative to the length of his tenure, and it may become four trades in six deadline periods this year.
Brad Holmes' trade deadline history points to patience if a move is going to happen
In 2024, Aidan Hutchinson's broken leg painted Holmes into a corner, with no leverage and a big need for an edge rusher.
Holmes later lamented how difficult the process to acquire edge rusher Za'Darius Smith from the Cleveland Browns, completed the morning of deadline day that year, was.
Holmes has made two other trades near the trade deadline. In 2022, tight end T.J. Hockenson was sent to the Minnesota Vikings hours before the 4 p.m. ET deadline. In 2023, wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones was acquired from the Browns on deadline day, with the news breaking less than an hour before 4 p.m. ET.
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Paganetti also charted out when current NFL general managers have made trades near the deadline, defined as 12 days out or less. Of 26 current NFL general managers who have been in their job for more than one trade deadline before this year's, 25 have made more than one trade with 12 days of the deadline.
Of that group, Holmes is one of five who have made every trade they've made "near the trade deadline" on deadline day itself.
Holmes' trade deadline resume, for better or worse, says he's in no rush to make a deal and the Bears' big early move for Simmons is unlikely to move that needle. If a trade is going to happen for the Lions, most likely, it'll be sometime on Nov. 10 and perhaps down to the absolute wire before 4 p.m. ET.
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