Analytics fully back how aggressive Dan Campbell is on fourth down

After the most recent pointed criticism of his aggressiveness on fourth down, Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell made it clear he knows why other coaches won't do it like he does.

"Well, here’s the obvious. What happens when we don’t get that? That’s the obvious. Well, we’re moving to the next house," Campbell said. "That’s why. To each his own, there’s plenty of philosophies that work in this league. And you can win a lot of games doing it your way, and I just lean more this way."

Other coaches won't go for it on fourth down like Campbell does due to fearing the consequences of failing in those situations. Campbell's process in deciding to go for it on fourth down is as much about feel and belief in his players as it is about what the analytical probability is, though the analytics often back his aggressiveness.

Campbell has honed his approach to going for it on fourth down. The Lions 33 attempts during the regular season this year is still a top-20 season for fourth down attempts in a season over league history, but his first three seasons all still sit in the top-11 (two in the top-six). This year, they converted 22 of those 33 fourth downs (66.7 percent; two-thirds).

Analytics fully back Dan Campbell being aggressive on fourth down

NFL analyst Ben Baldwin has a popular "Fourth Down Decision Bot", which takes an analytical look at just that-fourth down decisions, with a number of factors taken into account.

H/t to Jeremy Reisman of Pride of Detroit, here's Baldwin's fourth-down data from the last two seasons and just 2024, summarized by the idea "how often teams go for it when they should."

On those charts, just in the regular season, when a team should go for it on fourth down and does so is determined by win probability gained being at least 1 and a win probability range of 20-100 percent, while excluding the final 30 seconds of a half.

The Lions are a good bit above everyone else in going for it on fourth down when they "should", this year and the last two seasons. Some might say that aggressiveness is bound to backfire in big games. But it worked in the regular season finale against the Vikings, and despite the easy criticism Baldwin's model was not negative on Campbell's fourth down aggressiveness in last year's NFC Championship Game loss to the 49ers.

The Lions are not where they are without Campbell's general approach. Despite the critics being more than willing to come out whenever they can, what he does on fourth down is backed by numbers as he balances aggressiveness with good timing.