The Detroit Lions remain in the hunt for the top spot in the NFC North, as they've slowly but surely begun to shape up as the most well-rounded team in the division.
Every team in the NFC North has their flaws: the Chicago Bears' defense, like the Lions', still has major holes in their secondary. The Green Bay Packers are beyond injured this year, threatening to kill a window of opportunity in the NFC for Jordan Love and his squad. And, the Minnesota Vikings quite literally don't have a functional offense.
There's plenty to be be hopeful about around this Lions team, one that is trying to finally get over the hump of not just being regular season darlings, but postseason ones, too. These are five metrics that prove that their recent success is no fluke.
- Pass rush win rate
- Jared Goff's EPA/play
- D.J. Reed's recently improved play
- Rushing success rate
- Brian Branch's successful return
Pass rush win rate
The Lions desperately needed to re-tool their pass rush this offseason, as a means of taking some load off of Aidan Hutchinson's shoulders. They went out and got DJ Wonnum, drafted Skyler Gill-Howard, and thankfully got Alim McNeill back. These additions back to the fold have completely transformed their defensive line, and their pass rush win rate sits at 61 percent through seven weeks.
One area that the Lions could improve in here is actually recording sacks as a result of these pressures. They already reaped the benefit of having Brian Branch back in the fold (more on that soon), with their pressure leading to a 50-50 deep pass from Love in Week 7 that was immediately picked by Branch. They're still tied for the lead in total team sacks, though.
Their pass rush is for real, and you know that at least one of Hutchinson, McNeill, or Wonnum will begin to rack up sacks soon. In the meantime, their pressure is starting to be rewarded by a tightened up secondary. If their linebacker room can also figure it out, they'd really be cooking with a one-two punch defensively.
Jared Goff's EPA/play
Goff is, begrudgingly, not getting much MVP love this season. Despite his zero interceptions to his 14 touchdown passes (and one rushing touchdown!), he's been overlooked for the honor so far this year. It's in typical Goff fashion to have such little fanfare around what's shaping up to be one of his best seasons with Detroit, but we're here to hype him up, regardless.
One metric that really shows how elite he's been this season is his EPA/play, or expected points added per play. He ranks fourth amongst quarterbacks with at least 200 plays this season in EPA/play with 0.22. He's also third in total EPA amongst that same quarterback grouping, per Sumer Sports.
What's most impressive is that Goff leads all starting quarterbacks in EPA/play when facing a blitz, with 0.32. That kind of dispels the myth that Goff can't handle being moved around the pocket. Truth be told, in the very few years I've covered the team, this is the best I've seen Goff move.
This could bode well for him with inter-divisional play, especially against a team like Minnesota that loves to blitz 80 percent of the time.
D.J. Reed's recently improved play
Detroit's biggest flaws on defense have been their inability to limit explosive plays, and their linebacker units' inability to contain opposing teams' tight ends. At least one of these issues are solved if D.J. Reed's efficiency over the Lions' last two games is indicative of how he'll be playing for the rest of this season.
Per Pride of Detroit's Al Karsten, Reed has posted the fourth-highest PFF grade amongst cornerbacks between the Lions' win against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5, and their win against Green Bay in Week 7. Also per PoD's Karsten, he's ranked eighth against the run and fourth in coverage over those two games.
Reed was locking things down in the open field throughout the Lions' win over the Packers, stopping Green Bay on two key attempts where they could've ended up getting a huge gain. Instead, Reed was an excellent tackler throughout the game, and he was far and away the Lions' best cornerback in the game. Which is exactly what Detroit pays him to be.
If he's hitting his stride as Branch is returning, and as the team seems to have figured out a solid cornerback rotation next to Reed, they could be working with a much-improved secondary. Now if only the linebackers can figure it out.
READ MORE: T.J. Hockenson is ripe for a full-fledged revenge game vs. the Lions in Week 8
Rushing success rate
We'll add one caveat to this metric, which is that the Lions are the fourth-most stuffed team in the NFL, per PoD's Jeremy Reisman. However, they've been quite successful with their run game regardless, posting a 49.25 percent success rate from Jahmyr Gibbs alone. Since he's essentially the teams' rushing game, we'll just take that to count as a team stat, and not an individual one.
Gibbs' ability to still be successful on the ground despite a weird mix of poor run play design and some poorly masked formations by the Lions' offensive line is such a feat, and you have to assume the team will be better on this front as the season progresses. In a division with only one other team that has a semblance of an effective run game - the Bears - it'll be huge to get that stuff rate down.
Brian Branch's successful return
Branch, as mentioned, immediately provided a punch to the Lions' defense that's been missing this entire season. Getting an interception on a potentially explosive play down the middle of the field, which has been the Lions' kryptonite all season long, was proof that he was needed as a means of keeping teams honest with their pass game. Instead of simply carving the Lions up downfield, they have to be mindful of Branch's presence on that second level.
His 92.6 overall PFF grade in his first game back is just one piece of evidence to his impact on Detroit's defense. He's also a sack threat, and can help Detroit out with their currently ineffective blitzing packages.
Now if we can just get Kerby Joseph back on the field, the Lions will truly be looking like the team to beat in the NFC North this year.
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