Lions vs. Jets Best Bet: Trust Odds Movement Towards the Under

Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports /

Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions’ offense is humming down the final stretch of the season.

Since Week 10, Goff is third in the NFL in both passer rating and yards. In those five games, he’s completing over 69% of his passes, racked up over 1,300 passing yards, and Detroit is not just 4-1, but are a top 5 offense in both total yards and points per game via ESPN’s Field Yates.

However, Week 15 presents a daunting task as they take on the league’s most dominant defenses in the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium.

Detroit is already 1-0 in the Meadowlands this year after its 31-18 victory over the New York Giants. Should bettors expect more of the same?

Here are the latest odds:

Lions vs. Jets Odds, Spread and Total

Lions vs. Jets Betting Trends


  • Detroit is 6-0 ATS over its last six games and 9-3-0 ATS on the year. Since Dan Campbell became head coach, only the Cincinnati Bengals (24-10-0) and Dallas Cowboys (21-10-0) have been better ATS than the Lions. The Bengals and Cowboys’ combined W/L record since 2021 is 44-21-0, while the Lions are 9-20-1 SU.


  • The Jets rank third overall in the NFL vs. the number this year at 8-5-0 ATS. However, New York ranks second in the NFL in ATS +/- this season at +5.7, trailing only the Dallas Cowboys

Lions vs. Jets Prediction and Pick

In the interest of full transparency, I bet the UNDER when it opened at 48 late on Sunday night.

Even with the line several points below the opening number, I’d still bet it at 44.5 before hitting the key number of 44.

I have concerns for both teams’ offenses here, even with a dominant as the Lions have looked of late. Goff’s numbers indoors have been terrific with an 18:4 TD/INT ratio and 270.5 passing yards per game in eight games this year. When the conditions become less favorable, he’s had his issues; throwing for just one touchdown in three games with the passing yardage dropping by nearly 60/game.

This Jets’ defense is impressive: ranked top 3 in the NFL in opponent yards/play and top 5 in opponent points/play. But they have their issues on offense as well, and Detroit’s improved defensive numbers could lead us to the under as well.

So far this year, via TeamRankings, Detroit ranks 29th in opponent points/play overall. Over their past three games, they’re all the way up to 17th. Aside from Mike White’s nearly perfect performance in the Jets’ 31-10 victory over the tanking Chicago Bears, he hasn’t thrown a touchdown in his last two games despite 101 passing attempts.

Over Detroit’s last six weeks, they rank 10th in Weighted DVOA at Football Outsiders, and eighth in DVOA defense.

The play on the under is not just an understanding of the Jets’ numbers on defense. It’s also a nod to the Lions’ recent play on that side of the ball, and that it’s not just a fluke.

Before the number continues to creep lower and lower, I still believe there’s value at the current price on the board.

Follow all of Ben’s betting plays in real-time HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.