Is Lions running back Jamaal Williams a sure-fire fantasy starter in Week 9?

Jamaal Williams has been a fantasy asset this season, but is he an unquestioned lineup lock for Week 9?

In Week 8 against the Miami Dolphins, Lions running back Jamaal Williams had his seventh and eighth rushing touchdowns of the season to put himself in the franchise record books. With D’Andre Swift missing three games, he has capably kept Detroit’s rushing attack afloat.

Swift returned from a three-game absence against Miami, and outsnapped Williams 33-22. But Williams had more touches (13 vs.10) with 74 total yards to Swift’s 33 total yards.

Williams has double-digit carries in all seven games this season, with more than 75 yards on the ground and/or a touchdown five times. His eight touchdowns have come in four games, two in each, with one 100-yard rushing game.

Williams is a top-12 running back in standard fantasy scoring entering Week 9. He is getting all kinds of work close to goal line–second in the league in carries inside 10-yard line (16) and inside the 5-yard line (12).

But when Swift is healthy, Williams gets the shorter end of passing down work (though he did have three catches in Week 8).

Is Jamaal Williams a fantasy lineup lock for Week 9?

In Week 9 the Lions face the Green Bay Packers, Williams’ former team. The Packers are also generous against the run, as a bottom-five run defense in the league, and they’re allowing over 119 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (fourth-most per game in the league).

Even with Williams being the favored Lions’ running back around the goal line whether Swift is playing or not, touchdowns are inherently random and unpredictable. Remove Williams’ scores so far this season, and he would have four games with less than 7.0 fantasy points (Yahoo!, 0.5 point PPR) and just two with double-digit fantasy points.

Williams’ 41.7 conversion rate on carries inside the 5-yard line (five touchdowns on 12 carries) is begging for regression. So a touchdown-dependent fantasy back is bound to score with less proficiency over the rest of the season.

Focusing back on Week 9, Williams is a solid bet to score a touchdown in a home game for the Lions that’s lined up to be high-scoring. But his fantasy managers will he hoping for that touchdown, or even two to keep the pattern, with a wide range of possibilities for his touch volume and yardage output.

Williams is an upside, boom-bust, low-end RB2 or flex this week, with slightly less upside in PPR formats. That means he’s in the lineup for most of his fantasy managers with little question, with six teams on a bye. But his results will tilt a lot of matchups one way or the other.