ESPN’s projected sacks leader for the Detroit Lions looks incredibly iffy

ESPN has now taken to projecting the NFL’s top pass rushers in 2022, and the projected sacks leader for the Detroit Lions is increasingly iffy.

Sports analytics can be as informative as they are overrated, depending on who you ask. When it comes to the Detroit Lions offensive line, ESPN’s analytics department is flat-out wrong and far against the consensus in their 2022 projection.

ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder has now projected the top 50 pass rushers in the NFL for the coming season (subscription required). Two Lions made the list (h/t to Heavy.com)–Romeo Okwara (No. 13) and Charles Harris (No. 47).

There are also individual sack total projections. Harris led the Lions in sacks last year with 7.5, and his projection is 5.5. Okwara is projected for 7.8 sacks. If the two are available, along with rookie Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit’s pass rush will have the kind of juice it severely lacked last year.

ESPN’s Detroit Lions projected sack leader is incredibly, increasingly, iffy

With that 7.8 (?) sacks, Okwara is ESPN’s projected sacks leader for the Lions. He led the team with 10 sacks back in 2020, but he missed the final 12 games last season due to a torn Achilles.

Given that his injury took place in early October last year, it has always been likely Okwara would not be ready for the early part of the season. Tuesday’s roster moves confirmed it, as the elder Okwara was placed on the reserve/PUP list. He will thus miss at least the first four games of the season.

Okwara has said he’s optimistic he’ll be able to play this season. It should be when he is ready to play and not if, but it’s also not out of the question he’ll miss more than a minimum four games.

Okwara could get 7-8 sacks this season in say, 10, 11, 12 or 13 games. But it’s a stretch to project him as the Lions’ sacks leader immediately coming back from a major injury, with Harris’ projection a decline from last year and no accounting for Hutchinson.

ESPN missed the mark here again on the Lions, which is not meant as an offense to Okwara. All it would have taken was having information on someone’s injury situation.