Is this a make-or-break season for Lions head coach Dan Campbell?

It feels far-fetched he could only last two seasons as Lions’ head coach, but the coming season indeed looks like an important one for Dan Campbell.

The Detroit Lions knew what they were getting into in 2021, so general manager Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell got contracts giving them some latent job security (five years and six years respectively) as the most prominent figures in the latest rebuild.

Last year’s 3-13-1 record is a bit deceiving, as the Lions had some narrow losses and finished on a better note with three wins in their last six games.

Expectations are raised, yet reasonable, for the Lions in 2022. Doubling last year’s win total feels like a practical lock, and if you really want to guzzle the Blue Kool-Aid you can see a push to around .500.

Campbell is not anywhere close to the hot seat entering his second season, and by correlation getting a third season as Lions’ head coach feels pretty certain.

But Jeff Iafrate of Woodward Sports recently presented his opinion about where that could change.

What would it take for Dan Campbell to be fired after Year 2 as Lions head coach?

In a segment outlining why he’d bet the Lions to win more than 6.5 games (the prevalent over/under win total for them) this year, Iafrate landed with a punch line outlining where Campbell’s job security could come into question.

"The Lions have to win 6-7 games this year, that’s just fact…Let’s say he wins five games. That would put Dan Campbell at 8-25-1 as his coaching career for the Detroit Lions. You’re entering Joe Judge territory at that point. So it’s pivotal."

Iafrate’s reference to Judge is not a big stretch. Judge went 10-23 in two seasons as New York Giants head coach (2020 and 2021), and he was in over his head from the start.

Campbell definitely gives off a different vibe than Judge, and last season it was clear Lions’ players will not quit on him. But it will come down to winning noticeably more games in 2022, and a 5-12 record may indeed be enough to bring a coaching change in Detroit.