D’Andre Swift is going to operate as the Lions clear-cut workhorse back in Week 10, but is he matchup-proof in fantasy?
Despite having cleared 50 yards on the ground just once all season, Detroit Lions running back D’Andre Swift is RB9 in full PPR fantasy scoring through Week 9. Leading all NFL running backs in receptions (47) and sittting second in receiving yards (415, behind Cordarrelle Patterson) has been helpful.
Swift has succeeded in spite of the Lions’ offensive struggles, though he has left something to be desired as a pure runner (3.2 yards per carry). He seems to be a no-brainer weekly fantasy starter, but it’s easy to see why he might not be based on the bigger picture of Detroit’s offense.
In Week 10, the Lions face the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is 16th in the league against the run (109.8 yards allowed per game), but they are much tougher in terms of fantasy points per game allowed to running backs (16.2 per game, 0.5 PPR; tied for second-fewest in the league).
Naturally, the Steelers are among the stingiest team in receptions allowed to running backs (33; 4.1 per game). Only two backs have run for more than 85 yards against them this season, but stretching to total yards seven have had more than 75.
D’Andre Swift Week 10 fantasy outlook
In four of eight games this season, Swift has had 20 or more opportunites (carries and targets). In two others, he had 17 opportunities. One of those latter two came in Week 8 against the Philadelphia Eagles, when Jamaal Williams (thigh) was out. Williams will miss a second straight game on Sunday.
#Lions RB Jamaal Williams (thigh) is OUT vs. Pittsburgh.
— Eric Woodyard (@E_Woodyard) November 12, 2021
In a 44-6 blowout loss to the Eagles, Jermar Jefferson and Godwin Igwebuike combined for 22 snaps and 12 touches behind Swift. If the game had been more competitive, Swift would have surely set a new season-high for touches (21 in Week 3 and Week 7). Philadelphia took 38-0 lead into the fourth quarter, and all bets were off for normalcy.
In seven of eight games this season, an opposing running back has topped 60 rushing yards against the Steelers. While that doesn’t sound like much, just three of them have had more than 15 carries and one had exactly 15 carries.
Week 1: Devin Singletary-11 carries for 72 yards
Week 3: Joe Mixon-18 carries for 90 yards,
Week 4: AJ Dillon-15 carries for 81 yards
Week 5: Javonte Williams-eight carries for 61 yards
Week 6: Alex Collins-20 carries for 101 yards, one TD
Week 8: Nick Chubb-16 carries for 61 yards
Week 9: David Montgomery-13 carries for 63 yards
As a group, those 60-plus yards on the ground backs have averaged 5.2 yards per carry against Pittsburgh. However, none of the seven had more than three catches.
Swift should get to 15 carries with little trouble, no matter how Sunday’s game is going for the Lions, and he might have three targets by the end of their second drive. A touchdown will be hard to come by or confidently predict, but touches won’t be a problem.
The Lions offense is a two-man show in most scenarios for fantasy football. Swift is only to be benched by his fantasy managers who have better options to fill two running back spots and a flex spot. I’m willing to bet that’s a narrow segment of Swift’s fantasy managers, so don’t get cute despite the tough-looking matchup in Week 10. In DFS, he’s a sneaky solid play.
D’Andre Swift Week 10 Projection: 17 carries for 77 yards, six receptions for 52 yards