Detroit Lions: The small stats that could make a big difference this season

The only NFL statistic that really matters is the Win-Loss column, but these smaller stat lines could add up to big results for the Detroit Lions this year.

There are many different things that would need to happen for the Detroit Lions to contend for an NFC North title this year. If, at the end of the season, everything works out in the Lions’ favor in 2020 and we can celebrate a successful season for the first time literally in ages, there will certainly be plenty of numbers to look at to explain it all.

The old anti-statistic axioms like “stats don’t tell the story”, and “the only number that matters is a letter: W” exist for a reason, but so does a multi-million dollar industry for both traditional stat-keeping and advanced analytics. In this post, I’m presenting four somewhat obscure stat lines, trying to explain for each of them why I think they’ll be especially telling.

*Also important, but ones I’m NOT going to talk about:

• Any jump in numbers that I consider unrealistic. T.J. Hockenson doubling his receiving yardage: realistic. Kenny Golladay doubling his: not.
• Turnover +/-. It’s massively important for each and every team, that’s common knowledge.
• Anything involving Matthew Stafford. If he’s on the field, they’ll at least have a chance in nearly every game. Go watch some film of last November and December if you forget what happens when he’s not.

Small Stat #1: Sacks from the defensive line

Target number: 25 (DEs and DTs only)

Why 25?: As a team, the Lions only managed 28 total sacks a year ago. The league average is right around 40, and only the Miami Dolphins had fewer than the Lions.

Separating this out even further, I’m focusing only on the defensive linemen for now. Of the Lions’ sacks in 2019, a paltry thirteen of those came from the main pass rushers, the defensive line. For a defensive philosophy that would far prefer linebackers dropping back in coverage than rushing, the line ending up with fewer than half of the team’s sacks is just as troubling as the low number.

For a reference point, the 2016 Lions (most recent playoff team) only had 26 sacks as a team, but 23 of them came from the line, meaning other areas of coverage weren’t left exposed in trying to generate more pressure. If this year’s edition can get 25 from the edge and tackles, they won’t need to blitz as much. An additional plus is giving what will probably be a very young secondary more of a chance in coverage.

Trickle Down Effect: People swore up and down that this was the root of all of Detroit’s defensive woes a year ago, and it’s hard to argue that. No pass rush led to more plays for the linebackers to make, and a much longer time for defensive backs to cover.

No pressure from the line meant that blitzing in a blitz-averse scheme became inevitable, meaning even more gaps in coverage for patient quarterbacks to easily exploit. The inability of the defensive line to get any sacks is the reason Chase Young is seen by some as a potential franchise savior. With or without Young on the edge this upcoming season (probably without), generating a pass rush from the front four and the sack numbers to back it up is priority number one if we’re talking small stats that aren’t that small.