What was the Detroit Lions’ true* record last year?

Confounding variables in 50-50 games

Unfortunately I’m approaching my pitch count limit, so the really interesting stuff is going to have to wait until next time.  Before I sign off, I’d like to talk a little bit about 50-50 games.

As I said, I define them as very close games, where a few random plays at the end decide the outcome.  50-50s are tossups where both teams easily could have won. So just divide those games in half, right?

In this activity, it’s not quite that simple. Since humans rather than computers are playing the games (for now), you also have to give weight to some intangibles. In the Lions case this year, there were two of them that helped with 50-50s:

• Stafford Magic- Sorry haters, it’s a thing. Not as much of a thing as Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers magic, but it’s still a thing.
• Momentum/locker room culture-By all accounts, the Lions had it last year. Maybe that was the tipping point for some of those games that they stole in the final moments.

Next: NFC North Position Rankings - Kickers and Punters

The Detroit Lions won all five of their 50-50 games last year; most years, they lose most of them. In Part Two of this series, I’ll give some of my thoughts on how many of those were ‘deserved’ victories, and how many were lucky breaks that made a weak team look decent in the final standings.