Detroit Lions drop problem: Coincidence, or Stafford?
By Ty Finch
This season, the Detroit Lions have been leading the league in a few categories. Most notably, Matthew Stafford and company are tops in game winning drives, even setting an NFL record in the process. Stafford is completing a record 75(!!) percent of his throws in game-winning or game-tying drives this season (as of week 13). What makes those stats more impressive is that Stafford and the offense are doing them while leading the league in drop pass percentage.
This is not an uncommon occurrence for the Lions. In 2013, Detroit led the league in drop percentage as well. That year, which is frighteningly similar to the first 11 weeks of 2016, the Lions had been overcoming the drop problems early on to take a decided advantage in the NFC North. Hopefully, dissimilar to that forsaken year, these problems will not play a large part in losing the division lead, or missing the playoffs entirely. So what’s the deal? Why has this team had so many drop problems since Matthew Stafford began his starting streak in 2011? Let’s take a look at some stats and try to formulate an explanation.
First, let’s look at the drop percentage numbers since the (real) beginning of Stafford’s career:
2011: 12th
2012: 7th
2013: 1st
2014: 20th
2015: 28th
2016: 1st
Is it the receiver’s fault?
A likely explanation could come from the fact that the Lions, historically, have not had sure-handed pass catchers in the Stafford era. Even Calvin Johnson was prone to the occasional head-scratching drop during his time in Detroit. It certainly was not helpful to have Kris Durham (Stafford’s college roommate! Fun fact I bet nobody else knew!) as the Lion’s second wide receiver for a few years, and Brandon Pettigrew, prone to the worst timed drops imaginable. However, if it were the case of bad receivers, the drop percentages would change wildly from year to year, similarly to how the receivers themselves changed from year to year. That simply has not been the case as much as it has been with the coordinator changes.
Before getting into the meat and potatoes, let’s take in a theory from yours truly. In 2013, the Lions’ offensive coordinator was Scott Linehan, who, in hindsight, took more flack from the fan base than necessary. That year in particular, the Lions have used a comparable offensive game plan. Stafford was using quick, short, accurate throws and letting his receivers make plays after the catch. With his arm strength and tendency to fit throws into tight windows, it would make sense that shorter throws are more difficult to haul in than deeper passes with more touch. This season, Jim Bob Cooter has been using much of the same pass attack, with close to the same results. In 2014 and 2015, Joe Lombardi’s offense was predicated on long developing routes and chunk plays. Those were the years that the Lions enjoyed their lowest drop percentage in the Matthew Stafford era.
Is it Stafford’s fault?
The narrative that has been going around the fan base has been just that: Stafford’s throws have too much velocity on them to be caught with regularity. That point becomes moot when looking at the years where the team was not dropping passes game after game. Stafford was not throwing with less velocity during those years. Realistically, the Lions have much more talented pass catchers with better hands than they ever have before. The only factor that remains is that of the offensive system used during the high drop years.
So, with that theory out of the way, let’s see if it has any legs. What do the stats say? To make a long story short, the stats agree with me. For example, Matthew Stafford in 2016 is 21st out of 32 eligible quarterbacks in total air yards. Quarterback air yards track the amount of yards, in the air, that the ball travels from the hands of the quarterback to his intended receiver. This means that Stafford is throwing short and letting his receivers gain yards after the catch. This offense works well because of the abilities of the current receiving core, especially Golden Tate, who leads the NFL in yards after catch for the 11th time in 10 years (via Ty Finch).
What about the other years? The Lions were in the top half of the league in drop percentage for the three seasons under Linehan, immediately dropped to the lower half under Lombardi, and sharply rose under the Jim Bob Cooter era. This only reinforces my earlier theory. The short throws to maximize YAC, with a strong-armed quarterback who likes to fit them into tight windows, seemingly means more drops, even with receivers who possess above average hands. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones were near the top of the league in catch percentage before their days in Detroit. They were also in different offenses before Detroit, and even Golden Tate was enjoying similar catch percentages in Joe Lombardi’s offense as he was in Seattle, before Jim Bob Cooter took over here.
Similarly, between 2011-2013 (the Linehan era) the Lions were near the top of the league in drop percentage. The 1.5 years under Lombardi were marred by inefficient play and terrible offensive line chemistry, but his offenses tended to minimize any drop risk. When looking throughout the rest of the league, teams that average more air yards per pass, tend to have lower drop percentages than those who have less.
The solution is not glaringly obvious. It is also not easily fixable.
For example, let’s take a look at the team with the most air yards in the league in 2016, the Washington Redskins. The Kirk Cousins led offense has nearly 200 more air yards than the 2nd place offense Tampa Bay. The Redskins also are last in the league in drop percentage. In 2015, Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals had the most air yards in the league, and finished 18th in the league in drop percentage. It must be pointed out, however, teams that pass less, often have lower drop percentages for obvious reasons.
The Lions will likely be near the top of the league in terms of passing attempts every year with Stafford. Therefore, it would be likely to see a high drop number in upcoming years as well. Offenses are often give and take, and this may be something the Lions will have to deal with under the current quarterback/offensive coordinator combo. Given the results are not directly affected by the drops, fans may just have to get used to it. The trade-off is adequate enough.
So what is it?
As with most things in this league and in life, the solution is not glaringly obvious. It is also not easily fixable. The correlation between dropped passes and offenses/quarterbacks are not always, or even mostly, high. The Lions are doing what they think is best in this area. Bringing in pass catchers with low drop percentages, while tailoring an offense to fit Matthew Stafford’s best qualities. In terms of winning and keeping the opposition off the field, it is working well. Now isn’t the time to make drastic changes.
Bob Quinn, in his first year as general manager, has made many positive moves. One of his best actions was picking up Anquan Boldin in free agency. Boldin has made an immediate, positive, impact on the receiving core, but has also had one of his worst years in catch percentage. The give and take is necessary, it seems. This drop “problem” only becomes a real problem if it affects the bottom line of wins and losses. So far this year, it hasn’t. Long may it continue.
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