Detroit Lions Sunday News, Notes and Week 1 Prediction

The Detroit Lions are finally ready to take the field, kicking off against the Indianapolis Colts at 4:20 ET this afternoon. Detroit kept the transaction wire busy in the week leading up to this season’s opener.

Sam Martin Extension

Punter Sam Martin will be a Detroit Lions stalwart for several more years. The team locked up Martin with a contract extension worth $13.4M over the next four seasons.

Martin is one of the best and most consistent punters in the league. His touchback/downed in 20 rate has been in the top 10 in all three of Martin’s NFL seasons. Nobody is better at directional kicking than the 2013 fifth-round pick.

Many Lions fans still harbor negativity towards Martin for his choke job in the 2014 playoffs. Martin picked a very bad time for his worst career moment, shanking a punt in the controversial loss to Dallas. One bad moment does not define a career, however; Martin is a top five talent at his position and the Lions are a better team for it. He’s also one of the more popular players in the locker room and perhaps the most fan-friendly Detroit Lions player.

Theo Riddick Extension

On the same day Martin signed his extension, the Detroit Lions braintrust also extended running back Theo Riddick. The elite receiving back agreed to a 3-year, $12.5M contract.

Riddick is invaluable to the offense for his receiving skills. The 2013 sixth-round pick led all NFL RBs in receptions last season with 80 and, per Josh Liskiewitz at Pro Football Focus, scored the highest grade for any running back ever as a receiver.

He’s not much of a running threat as a ball carrier, and that limits his overall value. The money involved here indicates the Lions see him as more of a slot receiver than running back, and perhaps that’s where his future lies. Riddick’s receiving skills clearly impacted the decision by Bob Quinn and Jim Caldwell opted to keep just four wideouts on the 53-man roster. I expect Riddick to once again get three times as many targets in the passing game as he gets carries out of the Detroit Lions backfield.

Josh Bynes Released

In the midst of Saturday’s college football action, Detroit quietly released linebacker Josh Bynes.

Bynes was already on injured reserve, and the release indicates the Lions felt he wasn’t going to be able to come back in 2016. The veteran linebacker was set to be a free agent after the season, so this move merely accelerates his freedom clock.

This move is not indicative that the Lions felt Bynes couldn’t play. Availability is an ability, however, one which Bynes just didn’t offer in 2016. There’s a chance he will be back in 2017 as the depth chart at linebacker is thinner than airport bathroom toilet paper.

Matchup Notes

The Colts are really banged up. Even with the Sunday AM news that guard Jack Mewhort–their best offensive lineman by a wide margin–is going to try and play despite what has been widely reported as torn ACL, Indy remains the walking wounded.

Top cornerback Vontae Davis is out, as is No. 3 CB Darius Butler. Starting strong safety Clayton Geathers is also set to miss the opener. Their best pass rusher on the 3-man line, Henry Anderson, is unlikely to play as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered the same week as Detroit’s Brandon Pettigrew. Veteran Kendall Langford, the starter on the other side of the D-line, is iffy with a knee issue of his own.

Mewhort’s potential return is a real boost, and a necessary one as rookie OL Joe Haeg is also questionable with an ankle injury. He’s the sixth lineman.

Missing Davis is a real issue for Indy. He’s one of the league’s better cover men and generally rates out on the same plane as Darius Slay. Without him, Patrick Robinson is Indy’s top corner. Robinson is a former first-round bust in New Orleans who salvaged his career in 2015 by sliding into the slot in San Diego. No corner allowed more completions or yards per completion in 2014 than Robinson.

The Colts’ No. 2 corner is veteran Antonio Cromartie, a big play waiting to happen for both teams. Cromartie is great with the ball in the air but patently unreliable, which is why he’s now on his fourth roster in three years. After the starters, it’s up to Rashaan Melvin and Darryl Morris. Both were plucked off the waiver wire last week, which for Melvin was the fifth time he’s been cut in 20 months.

This certainly shapes up nicely for Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions passing offense. It also reinforces the argument that not having Calvin Johnson is a potential positive, as the new-look Lions receiving corps has two de facto No. 1 targets in Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. If the Colts shade extra help on one, Stafford can find the other. Keep in mind Indy’s starting a rookie safety in TJ Green, too. Their inside linebackers are arguably the worst in the league in coverage too, as D’Qwell Jackson simply cannot turn his hips.

Pass Protection

All this potential passing game fireworks depends on Detroit’s own rookie starter, left tackle Taylor Decker. If the big rookie cannot handle cagey veteran Robert Mathis on the edge, Stafford will be running for his life when he’s not turtling in self-preservation.

Mathis is a bad matchup for Decker because he gets so low in his rush. Decker has great length but that also means it’s a longer way down to reach Mathis, who is 6 inches shorter and still has quickness at age 35. Trent Cole also rotates in as a rusher, and he’s no picnic either.

If Decker and right tackle Riley Reiff are strong in pass protection, Stafford could throw for 350 yards and several touchdowns. That’s a big if, especially considering the Lions’ sorry situation at tight end.

Even with Eric Ebron probable to go, tight end remains an issue. Ebron is a receiver and from what we saw in camp will spend most of his time flexed out or moving across the formation, not inline blocking. Orson Charles is more of an H-back and also a much better receiver than blocker. Perhaps newcomer Khari Lee gets some action, but he’s likely to be inactive behind undrafted rookie Cole Wick. Wick’s blocking makes injured Tim Wright’s blocking prowess seem like Lomas Brown; it is indeed that bad.

In short, the tackles aren’t going to get help from the tight ends. We might see a lot of FB Michael Burton as a pass protector today, but that takes away from the receiving options down the field that can attack Indy’s biggest vulnerability.

Colts Offense

On the flip side, Indy’s own passing game will challenge Detroit’s biggest defensive weakness. The Lions are going to struggle to cover the middle of the field all year, a motley brew of linebackers who don’t travel with receivers well and inadequate strong safety play. Having DeAndre Levy back will certainly help as he was the best cover LB in the NFL back in 2014, but he’s bound to have some rust after barely practicing in the last 18 months.

Andrew Luck is at his best when on the move. In fact, defenses are more apt to contain Luck by keeping him in the pocket. Over half his career TD throws came with Luck moving out of the pocket, while more than 75% of his career INTs come from throws where Luck is between the tackles. Ziggy Ansah, Devin Taylor and the Detroit pass rush must finish their pressures or else they expose the thin and vulnerable secondary to Luck’s scrambling heroics.

Prediction

This is the most winnable road game the Detroit Lions get all season. The betting professionals are onto this…

That line is down to 2.5 at some books this morning, indicative that the gambling cognoscenti really like the Lions. And they should.

I think the Lions win in a high-scoring affair, 34-30. Stafford throws for 363 yards and 3 TDs, one each for Ebron, Tate and Riddick. Ebron blazes out to 6 catches and 115 yards off his ankle injury, getting player of the game. Detroit rushes for just 86 yards, but that tops the Colts’ 23 carries for 77 yards. A late takeaway seals the road win as the Detroit Lions open 2016 with a victory.