Can Lions rely on ground game in 2016?

A look into the 2015 Lions rushing attack, and what to expect in 2016.

2015 saw the Lions finish 7-9, 3rd in the NFC North and dead last in rushing offense at 83.4 yards per game. Detroit, headed by gunslinger Matthew Stafford, is a team heavily reliant on the passing game and has been for years.

Since Barry Sanders’ retirement after the 1998 season, only 3 Lions running backs have broken the 1,000 yard mark. James Stewart did it twice (2000,2002), Kevin Jones ran for 1,133 yards in 2004, and in the last decade only Reggie Bush, who had over 1,500 yards from scrimmage in 2013, has met the mark. This is an issue that has been addressed over the years but never saw sustained success. Jahvid Best was the closest the Lions have come to having a premiere back, but injuries ended his career early.

In the 2015 off-season, the Lions drafted Ameer Abdullah to be the premier back in the Lombardi zone-blocking scheme. Possessing all the key traits (vision, acceleration, and smooth cutting ability), Abdullah is the perfect back for the system. The problem was that the line wasn’t built for this system.

The zone blocking scheme has made its mark in the NFL for years, most famously by Mike Shanahan.  We saw running backs like Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis shine in the zone scheme. But like any scheme it has a weakness, specifically, the 3-4 defense. The philosophy of the 3-4 is a perfect counter for zone offenses, as it relies on gap control and discipline. This negates cut back lanes and clogs up the line of scrimmage so the running back has nowhere to go. To see a perfect example, go watch the Detroit vs Broncos game and watch as lanes get clogged and Ameer had to make 2 yards happen with maximum effort.

Of their 16 games in 2015, ten were against 3-4 defenses, including the Broncos, Packers, and Cardinals. Yet, Lombardi insisted on the Zone scheme and the Lions were unable to run the ball. This leads to short drives, keeping time on the clock, and inability to turn to the run in times of need. It really came down to Lombardi trying to fit a scheme around his running back instead of his line. Take a peak at the NFL.com scouting report for 2015 1st round pick, Laken Tomlinson. Why would we make a man-moving power guard, with a weakness of athleticism, block in a zone scheme?

To no surprise the Lions replaced Lombardi with QB coach Jim Bob Cooter, who switched the scheme to the man blocking system.

The second half of the season saw improvement and confidence in the young RB group. Abdullah averaged 4.65 YPC as well, fumbling only once in his 80 carries compared to the 4 fumbles in his first 63. More importantly, the run game mattered. Drives were sustained, the offense was dynamic, and the Lions finished the season with a 6-2 run. So what does this mean for 2016?

First, it means they are getting their money’s worth. Tomlinson can now grow in a system where he can excel and use his strengths. The returning veterans in Larry Warford and Riley Reiff are valuable, as well the Lions drafting Taylor Decker with the 16th pick in the first round. Decker, a Left Tackle from Ohio State University, is an above average run blocker and excellent at sealing the edge. Decker can be valuable to the offense and for Abdullah who averaged 2.5 YPC in outside runs to the left. The addition of Decker also allows Reiff to take a more natural position at Right Tackle.

With the scheme correct, the line young and healthy, and a passing attack that has had consistent success, I expect the Lions to focus on the run game. Will we see another 1,000-yard season? I don’t think so. Behind Ameer is the pass catching specialist Theo Riddick and injury prone running back Stevan Ridley, who will play a more power back role. But what I do see the Lions doing is trying to redirect the focus. With Megatron retired, many believe the Lions offense will have to rely on a passing game with no true number one target and the worst run game in the league. I’d argue that the Lions are making moves to a more balanced focus which will rely on different run looks and receivers who specialize in yards after the catch.

Expect the 2016 Lions to be the most balanced Lions team in years. I’m not expecting Pro Bowl numbers from Abdullah, but I can see 750 yards plus as well as another 200-300 yards through the air. The talent is there and it is about time the coaching caught up to their level. Caldwell is creating a culture where the best is brought out in their players and the scheme is molded to their strengths.