I believe there are five ingredients to build a Super Bowl winning team. I will explain each one and examine how close the Lions are to having each ingredient.
1. Dominant Pass Rush
Examples: 2008 Giants, 2011 Giants, 2013 Seahawks, 2015 Broncos
Having an effective pass rush is the quickest way to shut down an opposing offense. It becomes especially important in the playoffs, as the Giants have proven twice. The most important playoff factor used to be an effective running game, but in today’s NFL, that’s just not very common anymore. Last season, Von Miller won MVP of the Super Bowl in a game that included Peyton Manning and Cam Newton. Miller was unblockable during Denver’s entire playoff run.
In regards to the Lions, they are still trying to recreate the pass rush that led them to an 11-5 record in 2014. They have Pro Bowl defensive end Ziggy Ansah, who’s established himself as one of the premier pass-rushers in the entire league. Detroit is still without that dominant defensive tackle who can push the pocket. Haloti Ngata is a good player and played better down the stretch, but isn’t a game-changer anymore. Devin Taylor has a chance to make an impact now that he’s the likely starter opposite Ansah. Still, the Lions are not at that elite level anymore, without Ndamukong Suh out there. A’Shawn Robinson should help, but he’s no Suh, especially as a rookie. The rush should be better in 2016, but not quite elite.
2. Quarterback
Examples: Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Eli & Peyton Manning
This is the most obvious ingredient of any Super Bowl team. Without a quarterback, your chances of winning, or even making a Super Bowl, are significantly lower. While Peyton Manning wasn’t himself last season, he made some big throws during Denver’s Super Bowl run. Especially his two touchdown passes against the Patriots in the AFC championship game. Aaron Rodgers did it pretty much by himself in 2010. Joe Flacco, while not generally thought of as elite, proved himself to be to the tune of 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions, during their 2012 run. Tom Brady has 4 Super Bowl rings, spanning over 15 years. Enough said.
Now lets get to the Golden Boy, Matthew Stafford. A statistical machine, Stafford has yet to prove it when it matters most. In fact, up until last season, he hadn’t even beat a winning team on the road. Now a lot of that can be written off to poor team-building for much of the time he has been in Detroit (as you’ll see in my next ingredient) but he’s still yet to win a single playoff game. Nobody is confusing Stafford with Brady or Rodgers, but can he be Flacco? I believe so. Stafford isn’t elite but he can be a good quarterback who gets hot at the right time.
3. Good team architect
Examples: Ravens’ GM Ozzie Newsome, Patriots’ Bill Belichick. Bill Polian of the Bills and Colts.
This is one of the most overlooked aspects of Super Bowl-winning teams. A GM like Newsome or a coach like Belichick makes all the difference when it comes to year-to-year consistency. These guys aren’t looking to win a Super Bowl, they strive to put a contender on the field every year. Bill Polian built a team that went to four straight Super Bowls in Buffalo and a perennial contender in Indianapolis, when Peyton Manning was there. This is an area in which the Lions have always been miles behind the rest of the league.
New Lions GM Bob Quinn has a nice resume, but is largely unproven as the sole architect of a team. He seems to have a plan to build depth and competition, as they did when he was in New England. However, it’s impossible to judge him yet, based on any premature draft grades. He certainly has shown a willingness to draft for need over best player available. That philosophy didn’t get Martin Mayhew very far, despite him doing well in the first-round of most drafts. He rarely found mid-to-late rounders that were able to contribute. Quinn won’t be able to prove himself for a few years most likely.
4. Championship Hunger
Examples: 2009 Saints, 2013 Seahawks, 2014 Patriots
Underdogs play up to the elite level necessary to win championships. Every couple years, there’s a team who nobody saw going very far, that sneaks into the championship. The 2009 Saints are the perfect example of this. They were a talented offensive team, but had no defense, or recent success to bank off of. They were playing for their city after hurricane Katrina and they delivered big time in 2009. Drew Brees played like a man on a mission that season and especially in the Super Bowl, where he out-dueled Peyton Manning in his prime. Brady played the best Super Bowl of his career after dealing with the Deflategate scandal, in the 2014 AFC Championship.
The Lions should be as hungry as any team can possibly be for a Super Bowl, having never tasted one. They haven’t won an NFL Championship since 1957, before it was even called the Super Bowl. Lions’ fans are as starved as any fan-base outside of the Chicago Cubs or Cleveland Browns. There isn’t any guarantee that a hungry team will do better than team with a history of success, but it does affect the city when a team rises above expectations. The Seahawks weren’t expected to beat the Broncos’ all-time great offense in 2013, but their players were hungry and they throttled Denver as bad as any team that’s ever lost a Super Bowl. If the Lions are to host a playoff game in the near future, Ford Field will be as crazy as any stadium in the country.
5. Prolific Offense OR Defense
Examples: 2009 Saints, 2015 Denver Broncos, 2010 Packers
It’s unrealistic to expect a team to have both, just look at last year’s Super Bowl. Peyton Manning was a shell of himself, but the defense was good enough to beat the best offense in football. The same can be said for when those same Broncos lost to the Seahawks a few years ago. The Saints, Packers and Patriots have also proven that an elite offense can win a Super Bowl as well. The Ravens have done it both ways. Nobody can forget those Trent Dilfer-led Ravens, who had the best defense in the league, or the Joe Flacco-bunch from 2012. A Super Bowl team must be great on one side or the other. Teams that are average on both sides almost never do anything in the playoffs.
In 2014, the Lions had one of the worst offenses they have had under quarterback Matthew Stafford. However, they had one of their best seasons in team history because of the elite defense led by an Ndamukong Suh and DeAndre Levy. The Lions’ defense is no longer the elite group it was a few years ago. Time will tell if they can get back to that level. On the offensive end, it’s hard to know which Lions’ offense will show up next season. If it’s the one from the first eight weeks, they will be mediocre. If they play as well as they did down the stretch – when Stafford threw 19 touchdowns to 2 interceptions – they will be very hard to stop. Next season, they will likely end up somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. Without Calvin Johnson, it’s hard to expect them to improve, as my colleague Ty Finch pointed out yesterday.
The Lions are far from having all five ingredients, but they do possess a couple important ones. They have a quarterback, they have hunger and they should have a good pass rush with Ziggy Ansah playing as good as any defensive end in football. Bob Quinn still must prove himself a team-builder and the offense and defense will have to show that they are better than average units. Overall, the Lions have some nice pieces, but are likely a few years away from getting to a Super Bowl.