Investigating some first round draft day scenarios for the Detroit Lions at pick 16.
When the 2016 NFL Draft begins on Thursday night, there will be 15 teams selecting ahead of the Lions. That means there are roughly a bazillion different ways the draft could shake out. Let’s take a look at the team needs and review some of those scenarios to see what the Lions might be up against.
Drafting Offense
Offensively, the Lions have their most pressing needs at offensive tackle and center, then wide receiver, and finally less pressing needs at tight end and running back. With the talent pool of this year’s draft class, the Lions won’t be selecting either of those last two position groups in the first round. Some first round options for Detroit include offensive tackles Laremy Tunsil, Ronnie Stanley, Taylor Decker and Jack Conklin. At center, Ryan Kelly is the best option and at wide receiver, Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman are expected to be first round selections.
Some of these players are too rich for the 16th overall pick, a list that’s headlined by Ryan Kelly, but also includes Conklin and Coleman in my book. On the other hand, there are players that aren’t expected to be there when the Lions go on the clock. That list includes Tunsil and Stanley. Essentially that leaves Decker, Treadwell and Doctson.
I don’t know a single Lions fan who would be banging the table for a receiver in the first round, so Decker is the only realistic choice here. But what’s the likelihood that Decker is still there when it’s the Lions’ turn to choose?
Of the teams that draft ahead of Detroit, Baltimore, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, New York Giants, Chicago, Miami, Oakland and Tennessee all need upgrades at offensive tackle. Luckily for the Lions, OT isn’t the most pressing need for each of those teams. If Tunsil is still available at 6, the Ravens are definitely taking him. If Goff and Wentz go 1-2, I’d expect the 49ers to follow Baltimore by selecting Stanley. So far, this isn’t starting off great for the Lions’ prospects of landing Decker.
After San Francisco though, Tampa Bay, New York and Chicago all have more pressing needs, namely corner, linebacker and defensive line, respectively. The Giants could also use a receiver and running back so if Elliott is still on the board for them at 10, the Giants would probably not be selecting a tackle. Miami, much like Tampa Bay, needs a corner more than a tackle. They could have their choice of the second best corner or the third best tackle. Shoot, they may even consider Cody Whitehair because they need a guard too and they’re Miami. Nobody knows what Stephen Ross will have his hand in.
If the board manages to fall this way, it would leave three OT hungry teams picking in succession: Oakland, Tennessee and Detroit. Both of those teams ahead of the Lions also need a corner. Oakland may also look at linebacker here, depending on who’s available. Maybe they prefer Ragland to Decker, maybe they like Eli Apple or Mackensie Alexander more. As for Tennessee, they could also use help along the defensive line and I could definitely see them taking Detroit draft darling Andrew Billings one spot ahead of the Lions if they feel like he can be productive as the nose tackle in their 3-4.
There’s also the possibility that Jack Conklin is rated higher on one of these teams’ boards and they choose to go with him. In that case it is possible for Decker to slide down to 16. Ultimately, if Decker is there when Detroit picks, I think he’s the Lions’ selection but it seems more likely than not that he goes a spot or two before Detroit is on the clock.
Drafting Defense
That leaves us with the defensive side of the ball. The Lions are in need of help at defensive end, long term help at defensive tackle, linebacker, corner and safety. Basically every position. The draft options by position include: defensive ends (skipping the obvious top 5 picks here) Shaq Lawson, Kevin Dodd, Noah Spence, Jonathan Bullard and Emmanuel Ogbah. At defensive tackle, the options are Sheldon Rankins, Andrew Billings, Jarran Reed, A’Shawn Robinson, Vernon Butler and Chris Jones. At linebacker: Reggie Ragland, Darron Lee, Leonard Floyd. At corner: Williams Jackson III, Vernon Hargreaves III, Mackensie Alexander and Eli Apple. Finally, at safety, Vonn Bell.
As you can see, there are a ton of options here. The ones that are too rich for the 16th overall pick include Dodd, Ogbah, Spence, Robinson, Reed, Butler, Jones and Bell. The ones that aren’t likely to make it to the 16th pick include Lawson, Rankins, Floyd, Jackson and Hargreaves. That leaves Bullard, Billings, Ragland, Lee, Alexander and Apple as the realistic first round defensive options.
A fair amount of Lions fans and draftniks would probably think 16 is too high for Bullard but I like him. He’s quick off the snap and defends the run really well while showing promise at rushing the passer. Most importantly, he’s almost certain to be there at 16. It’s important to note the Lions seem to be interested in Vernon Butler too, so perhaps they look at him here, but I think they’re moreso hoping he’s still there in the second round.
So Bullard and Butler may be solid fall back plans, but let’s see what the odds are that we can find better value with some of these other options. Of the realistic options here, Andrew Billings is probably the fan favorite. He’s young, huge, and moves well. Some teams that are looking for help at defensive tackle are Chicago, New Orleans and maybe Cleveland. I think New Orleans takes Rankins if he’s there and I have the Bears taking Lawson. I have no idea where the Browns are going with their pick, but my guess would be that 8 overall would be too high for Billings. As I mentioned before, I could also see Tennessee taking Billings if they think he can play nose in their 3-4. And if Decker is already off the board, that would make for a pretty rough scenario for the Lions.
Linebackers Reggie Ragland and Darron Lee would be OK options and I think they’ll both be on the board when Detroit selects. There’s a chance Ragland could go the the Giants, but I think there’s a very good chance that one or both of these linebackers are there at 16. But I also think the team will give the corners a look first, so let’s see if they’ll still be available.
While Dallas and Jacksonville both need corners, they’re expected to take Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack by most. The next teams that will consider CB are Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Miami, Oakland and Tennessee. If Tunsil is available, Baltimore’s taking him and not a corner. Tampa Bay and Miami are both very likely to take a CB, so the top two will come off the board when these teams are on the clock. While that depends on who you ask, I’m saying those two selections will be William Jackon III and Vernon Hargreaves III. That leaves Alexander and Apple as the best remaining and once again, both the Raiders and Titans will be looking at the same position as the Lions. It’s obvious, but it’s important to note that the Raiders and Titans draft day decision making will greatly impact the Lions’ options. Here, we’ll split the difference and say one team takes Decker and the other team takes a corner, say, Eli Apple.
Who Do the Lions Select?
So who should Detroit draft? If the first 15 picks play out along these lines, that means the Lions should have their choice between Mackensie Alexander, Jonathan Bullard, Darron Lee, and one of either Taylor Decker, Eli Apple or Andrew Billings. If these are the options, I think the Lions should go with Decker or Billings, whichever one Tennessee doesn’t take. With that said, it seems just as likely that the Raiders and Titans take Decker and Billings back to back. In that scenario, who do you think the Lions should take? Yell at me on Twitter @LethalSax and let me know what you think!