I’ve spent an awful lot of time thinking about the Detroit Lions offense the last month.
Especially after the loss of Calvin Johnson. A lot of questions about the direction of the Lions and their offense have been flying around. Will they falter without their star? Or can they overcome the loss? A couple of weeks back I put out an article about the Lions biggest burning questions of the offseason. This of course was one of the main ones. The conclusion I’ve come to will seem staggering to many who believe that Calvin’s retirement will crush the Lions chances of making it back to the playoffs or at least fielding some sort of semblance of a working offense.
What I keep coming back to every time I look at the numbers and analyze the roster is that this offense should be just fine. In fact this offense could be even better. Before you say “this guy is crazy. ESPN told me this team is nothing without Calvin,” allow me to explain why the Detroit Lions offense could actually be more efficient in 2016.
So Many Options
Remember when “Stafford just bombs it Calvin” was the unrelenting narrative? Well It was sort of true all along. Forget the bombing part though. Matthew Stafford did target Calvin Johnson an awful lot over the course of their time together. A majority of that time unfortunately the only other options were Kris Durham, Nate Burleson, Tony Schefler, Kevin Ogletree and a litany of other receivers you’ve burned out of your brain by now. The Lions were also constantly one of the teams that were leading the league in dropped passes. No wonder he threw it Calvin so much.
Now Matthew finds himself with a group of receiving options that are some of the more sure handed in the league. What if I told you that the Lions only had 17 drops last year? What if told you that they ranked 28th in the NFL in drops? Out of every eligible receiver in 2015, the Lions only had two in the top 50. Eric Ebron was 22nd in drops and Calvin Johnson was 41st. The Lions now have Golden Tate who was 89th, Marvin Jones who was 111th, Abdullah at 212th, Jeremy Kerley at 309th and Theo Riddick who was all the way down at 369. To be fair Kerley is so low because he wasn’t targeted much in New York.
That’s not bad at all. To me that looks like six receiving threats that Matthew Stafford has to play with. Not counting the rookie receiver that’s expected to be drafted and guys like Tim Wright who we don’t know at this point how they will fit into this offense.
Many Options Means Many Options
It’s real simple. Stafford no longer has to stare down Calvin like he had to in 2011 or 2012 or even 2013. Now the ball can be evenly distributed and in many ways. Golden Tate can take the ball from just about anywhere. As can Riddick. Kerley can give Stafford a great option out of the slot providing he’s used more than the Jets used him once Todd Bowles showed up. Eric Ebron and Marvin Jones will likely be used down field more often than not. Ebron especially more often than not considering that he tends to stride when given a shot to go long and use his speed that fans rarely got to see under Lombardi. Don’t expect to see one receiver on this team that has the bulk of the receptions and touchdowns at the end of the year. Expect to see the load shared.
Matthew Stafford
Whether you love him or hate him is frankly irrelevant at this point. It’s a fact that Matthew Stafford as of late has been getting better and better every year. He’s shown that he’s become a far more intelligent and mature quarterback these past two years. You can really see it in the improvement of his decision-making which has drastically lowered the amount of interceptions he’s thrown as of late. Stafford showed that he could finally find his way to the elite status in the second half of the 2015 season when Pro Football Focus had him ranked in their top five quarterbacks in the league. On top of that, he finished the season top ten in every major category in the league except QBR where he ranked 14th.
If Stafford can continue this upward trend, it will greatly benefit the Lions in their life after Calvin. Obviously these weapons with sure hands will definitely help out with that. As will Lions Offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter who will be taking on his first full season on the job after helping the Lions go 6-2 down the final stretch in 2015.
Are superstar receivers a necessity anymore?
When you think about guys like Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and even Calvin Johnson, you automatically think of offensive success. But that’s not always true. Especially these days where the majority of teams that are winning are doing it without the use of a superstar receiver. In fact there were only two teams that went to the playoffs in 2015 that have what many would consider superstar receivers. The Steelers with Antonio Brown and the Bengals with AJ Green. It’s hard to count Deymarius Thomas anymore after his biggest game in the playoffs was four receptions for 40 yards and he only had one catch for eight yards in the Super Bowl.
It’s not just playoff teams. Even the teams with great offenses that didn’t make the playoffs don’t have a superstar receiver to throw to. Only three of the NFL’s top ten total offenses have them. The Steelers were the only team out of that top ten to make the playoffs with a superstar. It clearly would appear that the NFL is entering an age of balanced offenses as opposed to one or two superstars leading the charge. It’s really working as these are the teams like Seattle and New England that keep getting to and winning Super Bowls.
Cause For Concern
I would love to lie to you and guarantee that this all happens. But I can’t do that. To achieve a better offense the Lions are going to have to put in the work. s it stands, there’s a lot left to be done. The first major concern is that the Lions offensive line has yet to be upgraded. Geoff Schwartz is a nice band-aid. But missing on Russell Okung and Kelvin Beachum could come back to haunt the Lions if that can’t keep Stafford on his feet. So expect to see the Lions address this position early in the NFL Draft later this month.
The second concern is directly tied to the first. The Lions running game absolutely has to improve to achieve the balance the Lions need to succeed. Coming off having the leagues worst rushing unit in 2015, you have to hope that the Lions new running backs coach David Walker will be able to get the most out of Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick and maybe even Stevan Ridley. If the Lions can’t get these affairs in order, it could be another long season for Lions fans.
One also has to wonder if Jim Bob Cooter was a flash in pan or if he’s the real deal. The Lions offense definitely improved under his wing. But can he replicate that for an entire season? or did everything just fall into place at the right time last year. We’ll find out soon enough.
Once again I can’t guarantee any of this stuff. I can only go with what the data and my gut are telling me bout this Lions offense. What it’s telling me is that there should be a lot of optimism in 2016. What are your thoughts Lions fans? Be sure to leave your comments below or come tell me I’m wrong on Twitter @SLR_Mike.