2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Since 1969, the Steelers have had three head coaches (Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin). But the end of Tomlin's time may be coming. Much is made of his never having a losing season in 17 seasons, but the Steelers also haven't won a playoff game since 2016. If Tomlin were available he'd have no trouble finding a new job, but sometimes things get stale and a change is needed.
Tomlin has said he expects a contract extension, entering the final year of his contract, and owner Art Rooney II has said it's a matter of time before it gets done. Time will tell.
For all the consternation about Matt Canada, Tomlin made a curious decision to hire former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith as the Steelers' new offensive coordinator this week. If the hire of Smith doesn't work out, it could be the final straw for Tomlin.
I will say this: If the Arthur Smith decision goes poorly, that will be three strikes in a row against Mike Tomlin when it comes to OC hires. He would need to be done with the Steelers at that point in my mind.
— Tommy Jaggi (@TommyJaggi) January 30, 2024
If nothing else, being the Steelers' head coach is supreme and unrivaled job security for an NFL coach. If Tomlin is gone after next season, they should easily have interest in Johnson to replace him.
1. Buffalo Bills
After falling short in the playoffs again this year, and having been to just one AFC Championship Game in the last five years, it's worth wondering if the Bills' "Super Bowl window" has closed. This season's rally from 6-6 at the bye week to 11-6, winning the AFC East and winning a playoff game cooled the heat on head coach Sean McDermott. But it's not totally going away heading toward next season.
Even if the Bills win 10-12 games again next season, McDermott could be relieved of his duties if their postseason runs falls short yet again.
At some point the ceiling is the ceiling with a given coach in place, and McDermott is running out of reasons for Buffalo falling short of expectations that aren't him. Leslie Frazier mysteriously left his post as defensive coordinator after the 2022 season, especially in light of him interviewing for jobs now. Then McDermott made offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey a scapegoat after a bad loss to the Denver Broncos this year.
In Buffalo, should the job come open after next season, Johnson would get to work with quarterback Josh Allen and some nice pieces around him on the offensive side. So the job would be one he'd surely want, and the Bills should covet Johnson if they move on from McDermott.