2. At least 3,900 Passing Yards
If Goff can close the gap between his worst and his best games (#consistency), and play all 17 games, 3,900 yards through the air shouldn’t be hard to get at all. Injuries of the more nagging than substantial style have become a little bit of a thing for him the last couple seasons, but durability is not a broad concern.
The Lions simply sustaining offense in a better fashion, after having a dismal third down conversion rate last year (31st in the league) should foster better production. Much of that is on Goff, with a mix of better effectiveness and threatening/passing the sticks with throws on those critical downs. But he was very efficient against the blitz last year, top-10 in completion percentage (68.1 percent; third) and passer rating (103.0, 10th). It just seems to be a matter of getting some explosive plays when teams come after him with an extra rusher.
Over 17 games, 3,900 yards breaks down to an average of 229.4 yards per game. Goff had more yards than that in six of his 14 starts last year, spanning his good and bad stretches.
Goff will need more volume than he’s likely to get to threaten his career-high in passing yards (4,688 in 2018). In 2019 he led the league in pass attempts (626) and threw for 4,638 yards.
A run toward 4,000-plus passing yards isn’t out of the question for Goff this year. But I’ll knock it down a bit and come in with a realistic goal of at least 3,900.