Playoffs? Is the Detroit Lions season over? Sorting out the chances
Thinking it through
To illustrate the difficulty of the task, if the Detroit Lions win seven of their second-half games to go to 10-5-1, the Vikings cannot win more than 4.5 games (four wins and a tie). None of the three other teams ahead of them could win more than five of their remaining games, either.
It would also be helpful if the Seahawks didn’t win more than two more games. That’s five teams that are all playing better football than the Lions that have to all start playing significantly worse ball.
Keep in mind that winning seven games from a list that includes Chicago twice, Dallas, Washington, Minnesota, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos, and Green Bay Packers is a very tall set of tasks all by itself.
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The schedule is favorable
The good news is that Washington, Tampa Bay, Denver, and Chicago all have less or the same amount of wins as the Lions. That makes these games potentially winnable. That is similar to the meeting with the Oakland Raiders, which the Lions couldn’t win on a day where every other NFC North team lost.
Additionally, the Detroit Lions play two of the teams ahead of them but the Packers are basically out of reach. Their magic number is only four wins of the last seven contests on their schedule. The Vikings get to host the Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium when they meet during Week 14, unfortunately.
They get home games against Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Chicago.
Can the Lions win more games in the second half of the year than they did in the first half? Sure; it wouldn’t shock us to see them win four or five if they can get a few players back but that’s as optimistic as we can be. There’s still a shot at winning less or staying about the same, too.