Should the Detroit Lions draft an offensive lineman in round one?

Value of the pick

In my last post, I said that I would seriously consider a first round lineman. While it is possible for all of the very good offensive lineman to be gone, that would greatly increase the value of the Lions pick in another area, not likely to be a quarterback. I have also stated that if push came to shove, I’d take a defensive lineman without any regret.

The next thing to consider is the idea of value of a pick. Here, we can examine the value via simulations, to see what the best player might be. Part of how to consider value is relative value to other prospects at the same position, or of those at other positions.

Comparing picks

It means, at some point the Lions will get a choice like, “Draft the second to third best tackle, or the second to third best defensive end?” Or, “Draft the second to third best tackle, or the fifth-best quarterback?” This often limits the number of players taken in any round, at any one position, to about four to six, maximum.

Of course, there are many instances of more than four to six players being drafted at the same position, in the same round; the maximum that I could find was ten. Ten wide receivers were drafted in round two, between picks 33 and 58, of the 2008 NFL Draft. Jordy Nelson and DeSean Jackson are about the only two most people would know from the list, too.

You get the idea, though. Right? Teams aren’t going to keep drafting from a position pool unless it is deeper than other positions.