2016 Lions Opponents: Did They Improve? NFC North & More
By Al Stahl
New Orleans Saints
The Saints finished 2015 at 7-9. They split their 6 division games and they went 2-2 against the AFC South and the NFC East, probably the two worst divisions in football last year. The only other division that’s really close to as bad is the one that they play in. This year, New Orleans faces the AFC West and the NFC West (much better divisions).
New Orleans finished dead last in scoring defense last year, giving up nearly 30 points per game (!!!). Offensively, they finished 8th in points scored with 25.5 per game. Only two teams, Carolina and Arizona, averaged more points per game than the Saints’ defense was allowing. And the Saints were allowing that against some of the worst teams in the NFL.
What I’m saying is the Saints’ defense is bad.
So before we see what they did on that side of the ball, let’s look at the offense.
| 2015 Offensive Starters | Proj. 2016 O Starters | |||
| Pos. | Player | Pos. | Player | |
| LT | Terron Armstead | LT | Terron Armstead | |
| LG | Tim Lelito | LG | Tim Lelito | |
| C | Max Unger | C | Max Unger | |
| RG | Jahri Evans | RG | Andrus Peat | |
| RT | Zach Strief | RT | Zach Strief | |
| TE | Benjamin Watson | TE | Coby Fleener | |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | WR | Brandin Cooks | |
| WR | Marques Colston | WR | Willie Snead | |
| WR | Willie Snead | WR | Michael Thomas | |
| RB | Mark Ingram | RB | Mark Ingram | |
| QB | Drew Brees | QB | Drew Brees |
The Saints parted ways with Jahri Evans, essentially replacing him with Andrus Peat who was slotted at left tackle until Terron Armstead was recently activated from the PUP list. The rest of the offensive line looks the same. At tight end, the Saints added Coby Fleener from Indianapolis in free agency. He should absolutely be a top 5 tight end this year with Drew Brees under center. At receiver, New Orleans added Ohio State product Michael Thomas to replace Marques Colston.
The offense should be good, possibly even better than last year. But the offense is not the Saints’ problem:
| 2015 Defensive Starters | Proj. 2016 D Starters | |||
| Pos. | Player | Pos. | Player | |
| DE | Bobby Richardson | DE | Bobby Richardson | |
| DT | John Jenkins | DT | Tyeler Davison | |
| DT | Kevin Williams | DT | Nick Fairley | |
| DE | Cameron Jordan | DE | Cameron Jordan | |
| OLB | David Hawthorne | OLB | Dannell Ellerbe | |
| MLB | Stephone Anthony | MLB | James Laurinaitis | |
| OLB | Hau’oli Kikaha | OLB | Stephone Anthony | |
| CB | Brandon Browner | CB | Delvin Breaux | |
| FS | Jairus Byrd | FS | Jairus Byrd | |
| SS | Kenny Vaccaro | SS | Kenny Vaccaro | |
| CB | Delvin Breaux | CB | P.J. Williams |
Saints first round pick Sheldon Rankins recently broke his fibula and should be out for a significant portion of the regular season. In his place, familiar face Nick Fairley will start. Rankins should be back well in advance of the Lions’ Week 13 matchup. With the Rankins injury, the interior of the defensive line is in a bit of flux, but the back seven is much more set.
It was clear last year that throwing their rookie linebackers into the fire wasn’t prudent. Stephone Anthony and Hau’oli Kikaha struggled through much of the season. As a result, the Saints signed James Laurinaitis in free agency. Danell Ellerbe, who missed most of 2015, also returns although he’ll have to prove he can stay healthy first. If the linebacking group can stay healthy, they should be much better in 2016. That’s certainly a low bar to clear.
In the secondary, Automatic penalty flag Brandon Browner is gone, replaced by PJ Williams who tore his hamstring and missed the 2015 season. The safety tandem of Jairus Byrd and Kenny Vaccaro return as well.
On paper, this secondary should be a lot better, but the quality of the defense will be determined by the performance of the front seven.
Verdict
The Saints have some consistency along the offensive line and a couple new toys for Brees to play with in Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas, but this team will only go as far as its defense can carry it. An awful front seven will be marginally improved and should get a nice boost when Rankins returns to the field. The secondary got better the day Brandon Browner signed with Seattle and getting playmaking corner PJ Williams back from injury should only help.
After finishing dead last in 2015, there’s nowhere for the defense to go but up. 8 or 9 wins should be expected, which means they should be in the hunt for the division when they face the Lions at home.
Lions’ chances of a road victory: 53%
I’m going to put together a recap of this series along with a 2016 season prediction. Be sure to keep an eye out for it and let me know what you think on twitter @LethalSax!