5 biggest x-factors for the Detroit Lions vs. Rams in the Wild Card Round

The Detroit Lions are hosting their first playoff game in 30 years on Sunday night, with the extra layer of Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit as the quarterback of the Los Angeles Rams and Lions' quarterback Jared Goff going against his former team too.

The "expert" predictions for Sunday night's game are pretty divided, with some Rams' tilt in recent days, as some think the Rams and Stafford will pull off the relative upset while others think the Lions will hold court and end their lengthy playoff win drought.

The Lions have more players with previous playoff experience than you might think. So the postseason stage may not be as overwhelming for a set of younger players, as it's easy to just assume based on the franchise not having been to the playoffs since 2016. The home field advantage will be helpful too, and the atmosphere at Ford Field will be (as Stafford has said he expects this week) "rocking."

The Lions winning or losing Sunday night's game will be driven by the performance of a core group of players. Some of those names are easy to tab, while others might not be as obvious but will be just as important.

Here are the five biggest x-factors for the Lions against the Rams in the Wild Card Round.

5 biggest x-factors for Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams in Wild Card Round

5. WR Jameson Williams

Prior to missing the regular season finale with an ankle injury, Williams had some really good momentum going. He played 57 percent or more of the offensive snaps in seven straight games before that. The play he was injured on, a 63-bomb against the Cowboys in Week 17, was a nice development as those kind of plays showcasing him as a deep threat have been too rare. In the two games before the Dallas game, Williams totaled 13 targets as his involvement beyond sheer snaps finally spiked.

Williams in on track to play on Sunday night, with full practices on Wednesday and Thursday before carrying no official injury designation on Friday. The Rams' pass defense has not been quite as bad as the Lions' pass defense has been this season (more on that to come), but they aren't exactly a shutdown secondary either. In three of their four games before Week 18, when starters rested, they allowed at least 284 passing yards. Safety Jordan Fuller (ankle) did not practice all week.

Williams can obviously change a game with one big play. As Jeff Iafrate of Woodward Sports added to that sentiment, he is also not a stranger to playing in big games, having played in the College Football Playoff and the national title game during his one season at Alabama.

Williams should have some opportunities to make plays in favorable coverage situations on Sunday night. If Jared Goff can connect with him and he can make those plays, it will be huge for the Lions' success as an offense.

4. Dan Campbell

In terms of aggressiveness, the difference in the two head coaches on Sunday night is stark. Campbell and the Lions went for it on fourth down 40 times during the regular season, converting 21 of them (a not-so ideal 52.5 percent success rate). Meanwhile, McVay and the Rams went for it on fourth down 21 times, converting 13 (a 61.9 percent success rate).

Campbell plays to win, which was shown by his philosophy about resting players if the Lions had anything clinched and he paid that off in Week 18. That gets further reflected in his fourth down aggressiveness, and players love it.

But Campbell has had some struggles in finding the balance between appropriate aggression and not being smart about it. At times that has put his team in a bigger negative situation that it had to be if he had just taken a more conservative approach.

Campbell's aggressiveness is always a double-edged sword that fosters results-based, hindsight analysis. He's surely not going to change his ways in a playoff game, though if he does that will be interesting and telling.

Campbell's aggressiveness is something that feels sure to tip the scales on Sunday night, for his team if it works out or for the Rams if it doesn't work. The key for him will be being aggressive in appropriate moments, not just for the sake of being aggressive to show the belief he has in his team.

3. Lions' secondary

The Lions' pass defense has been a real issue for most of the season. They finished the regular season 27th in passing yards allowed (247.4 yards per game), with the tied for most yards per completion (12.3) and the fifth-most total completed air yards allowed in the league. They were 29th in net passing yards allowed per attempt (6.7), and they were toward the bottom of the league in all yards per attempt metrics.

Cameron Sutton, the Lions' biggest cornerback investment in free agency last March, did not have his first interception of the season until Week 18. He was often not close to enough to the receiver he was covering to make any kind of play on the ball. At a certain point, any issues with defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn's scheme/coverage decisions are not an excuse for receivers simply running free in the secondary.

One great wide receiver has regularly been a problem for the Lions' secondary this season. The Ram s offer two, with rookie Puka Nacua joining Cooper Kupp. Demarcus Robinson emerged late in the season as nice No. 3 receiver as well.

During his appearance on 97.1 The Ticket this week, head coach Dan Campbell professed confidence the Lions' secondary will step up against the Rams.

"I'm very confident. Here’s why I’m confident, because that’s what it’s going to take to win this game, and they’re going to do it," Campbell said Tuesday on 97.1 The Ticket. "We have our hands full. Those are two really good receivers. Kupp has a full resume here, the rookie has had a really good first year, and then they got a guy who can throw it."

Campbell's confidence here simply does not have good legs to stand on, but he's not going to say anything else. The Lions' secondary could be higher on this list

2. C Frank Ragnow

These numbers below for the Lions' offense with and without Ragnow on the field this season are from before the final three games of the regular season. And after he had returned from a one-game absence due to a knee injury. But they stand out, and reflect how important he is.

Ragnow is the literal center of one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Smart, tough, physical and underrated as an athlete, his presence has a marked difference on how well Jared Goff is protected and how successful the Lions' ground game is. And he's been operating for basically the last two seasons with a significant toe issue that he'll likely deal with for the rest of his career. Other issues have popped up along the way to land him on the injury report (some smart people may call those other issues a kinetic chain thing related to his toe).

The strength of the Rams' defensive line is on the interior. Aaron Donald is of course a future first-ballot Hall of Famer, and Kobie Turner became an instant star as a rookie this year. Dan Campbell acknowledged the huge challenge for the Lions' interior offensive line.

"Disruptive. TFLs. In the pass game, quarterback pressures, sacks,” Campbell said of Turner. “If you’re going to put your attention on 99 [Donald], then we’ve got to win our one-on-one versus 91 [Turner]. It’s challenging. [Turner is] playing at a high level, he’s really coming on. The minute you try to take care of him, then Aaron is by himself and we know what he can do. Then again, I still love our matchup. I like our o-line. We’ve seen a lot of good fronts and have accepted those challenges. This will be no different. This will be a big challenge.”

The effort to keep Donald and Turner away from a generally stationary, in the pocket Goff, and keep them from disrupting runs before they can start, begins with Ragnow. Not that won't perform well, but the Lions' center has to be on top of his game with no real slip-ups on Sunday night.

1. QB Jared Goff

Goff is the obvious No. 1 here, but that doesn't make it any less true. He has tried to dismiss the idea of a revenge angle, against his former team and the coach (Sean McVay) that discarded him quickly when the timing was right. But ultimately, when asked this week by Eric Woodyard of ESPN if it still existed like it did at the time he was traded to the Lions, Goff could not hide that huge chip on his shoulder.

"Of course," Goff told ESPN. "I think it'll never leave me, and I think that's a good thing."

Then, even in praising McVay this week, Goff couldn't hide a little bit of bitter tone toward his former coach. McVay again acknowledging how he could have handled Goff's departure better is inconsequential at this point,

"Obviously, we had our differences there at the end, but he's a great coach," Goff said of McVay. "He's a guy that taught me a lot."

For Goff, the obvious key will be channeling his not-so hidden desire to beat McVay and the Rams into a good performance. Dan Campbell doesn't think that will be an issue, and Goff's teammates want to win for him on Sunday night.

While obvious, Goff playing clean football and being able connect with his receivers for some impactful plays will be critical for the Lions. He has to be sharp. If he's not, it could quickly turn into a long night for the home team.